BREAKING: The FED Cancels ALL Rate Cuts - Stock Market Melt-Up Has Begun!
In a Nutshell
The Federal Reserve has paused rate cuts indefinitely due to surging oil prices driving inflation to ~3.3% (potentially higher), fueling a historic stock market melt-up with S&P 500 up 12%, Nasdaq's 13-day win streak, and Bitcoin up 13% amid institutional ETF inflows—despite record-low consumer sentiment signaling potential fragility. Housing prices are flattening nationally (Zillow forecasts 0% rise), with drops in overpriced Sun Belt markets and gains in affordable Northeast areas, as mortgage rates climb toward 5.7% by 2030. Ignore short-term noise from Powell's exit and Warsh's nomination; stick to consistent monthly investments in stocks and Bitcoin ETFs (under 15% allocation) to capture long-term gains, as markets thrive on maximum pain and disbelief.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
We're in the middle of one of the strongest stock market rallies ever in history, back near brand new all-time highs. This isn't just stocks: home sales are increasing, Bitcoin is up 13%. This might suggest the start of the great melt-up where asset prices balloon to unimaginable levels before everything crashes.
Federal Reserve decided not to lower interest rates a few hours ago. Need to discuss what's happening, if concerning, and how to come out ahead. This could be the last phase of the cycle where everyone feels rich right before the bill comes due.
Inflation is the giant problem. Oil controls costs of everything: cargo ships, trucks, planes, tractors, factories, plastics, packaging, fertilizers, supply chain. Every $10/barrel increase in crude oil raises inflation by 2% and sets back economic growth by 0.1%. Oil was $57/barrel a few months ago, now over $100, implying inflation increase by ~0.7%. Last month inflation at 3.3%, before oil's all-time high, so next month could be worse. Fed has frozen rate cuts this year; market prices next cut in October 2027.
Stock prices setting non-stop records: 10% rally in 10 days (one of strongest ever), from oversold to overbought in 11 days (second fastest on record), NASDAQ 13-day win streak (most in 13 years). Yet consumer sentiment at lowest in survey's 70-year history. When stock market strong and sentiment low simultaneously, something's about to break.
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