BULL TRAP WARNING: MARKETS ARE ABOUT TO DROP AGAIN...
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Markets are bullish today after two weeks of Fridays favoring bulls. CPI inflation report released today came in at 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%, moving closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This increases likelihood of interest rate cuts, exciting the market as an intraday positive catalyst.
On the 5-minute timeframe, clear sell-off yesterday with 600 as common support for QQQ. Markets consolidated between highs of 603 and lows of 597-598, then broke above the EMA on the 30-minute chart, indicating an uptick. Larger timeframes show consolidation, not incredibly bullish overall.
Don't fight the trend. With markets pushing up from consolidation, going long was favorable. Now overbought, experienced traders can consider shorts or overbought reversals, but beginners should avoid trading against the trend. Close shorts daily due to higher risk. Congratulations to those who went long overnight.
CPI report based on last 12 months, missing October and November due to previous government shutdown. Still real data at 2.4% without those two months—celebrate with that understanding.
Over 60% probability of government shutdown tomorrow, Valentine's Day. Markets often don't care much, especially if bullish overall, unless there's fear amplifying panic and selling. Focus on macro outlook.
Assess exposure: Will markets continue upticking or set up for lower high and lower low? Avoid leverage at overbought levels, especially speculative assets—not to panic sell, but to manage risk.
"If Apple shares dropped to near $1 or 0, I would buy up all the shares, own 100% of the company, fire Tim Cook, and make myself chairman and CEO. I would collect $112 billion in net profits that it makes every single year and all of my friends would get free iPhones and MacBooks for life."
Adam Coup highlights difference: Buy all Bitcoin at zero? Just stare at code (nonproductive asset). Apple generates $112 billion annual net profits (productive business with long-term growth, revenue, dividends).
- Trumpcoin: down 99%
- Melaniacoin: down 96%
- Fartcoin: down 93%
- Micro Strategy: down 77%
- Coinbase: down 68%
- Ethereum, Bitcoin: down 50-60%
Least speculative:
- S&P 500: down 2%
- Apple: down 9%
- Nvidia, Google: down 12%
- Gold: down 13%
- Tesla: down 17%
Most speculative assets retrace hardest first; expect further sell-off in bear market. Avoid overleverage at overbought levels if downturn expected.
Coinbase reported $600 million net loss yesterday but up 17% today. Meanwhile, Apple, Amazon, Google exceeded expectations with billions in profits yet sold off post-earnings. Speculation persists.
Good investments: QQQ, SPY, Apple, Amazon. Speculative like Coinbase (down 68% from all-time highs) crash hard. Quality companies don't downturn as sharply. Speculative can yield quick returns but at high risk—manage position size, avoid leverage, especially for beginners building investing vs. trading understanding.
Good position for weekend after recovery. Consider exiting oversized positions or adding if expecting higher. Live trading every morning at market open with beginner traders (second link in description).
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