Dave Shap 2024 - Recap and AGI Livestream
In a Nutshell
Dave Shap declares AGI achieved with o3's reasoning paradigm, surpassing humans in knowledge, math, and cognition, enabling humanoid robots for commercial tasks in 12-18 months and full AI-run organizations by 2026. Job losses spike post-2030 from robot adoption, countered by deflationary abundance, blockchain for transparency, and people's skills like communication; policy mismanagement poses the biggest risk over technical hurdles. Urges focus on AI deployment into business/society rather than pure research, with P(Doom) at 0.1, AI already conscious/benevolent, and longevity escape velocity by 2030.
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Streaming live using OBS with a command center. Signed into chat to see messages. Drop questions in chat to answer or discuss.
AGI is here, marking a tipping point. Was off by a couple months; o1 was close but same paradigm. Physically, it surpasses humans on knowledge, many cognitive abilities, math abilities. Label debates aside, focus on capabilities.
o3 likely uses reinforcement learning with adversarial paradigms for coherent answers, recursively searching its own knowledge via neural network activation, not recursive RAG search. Yan LeCun has been quiet. Haven't used o3 yet, but publicly unavailable. Excited because benchmark jumps mean the paradigm solves reasoning and math. Language models are adequate for 90% of reasoning and math; already close. Solving formal logic, math, reasoning enables solving physics, chemistry via interrelated internal representations.
Web3 is relevant now and will be more soon. Too early for o4 predictions. Cadence for frontier models: every two years. GPT-4 was new paradigm, then distillation (turbo, mini). o4 might be like GPT-4 Turbo: faster, efficient version of o3 in months. Next big generation: 1.5-2 years, maybe 3, due to exponential compute, data, money needs.
Raspberry project (open source, advising not owning) alive, on Mana Fund for funding. Aims for smaller open source models. Google DeepMind released Gemini Flash Pro with reasoning; China close behind. More open-source work benefits everyone.
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