Don't Miss This Market Shift: Rate Cuts Coming Soon?
In a Nutshell
Markets surged after weak jobs data (23K jobs lost vs 80K expected) slashed rate hike odds and boosted rate cut expectations, sending bond yields sharply lower. Oil prices dropped after Trump’s Iran port blockade lift eased Middle East tensions. Position sizing stayed conservative; Micron closed a $1,200 profit while Palantir ended $244 in the red.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
The NASDAQ ended in the green for the week overall, making progress from the start to the end of the week. Chip stocks were negatively impacted by the South Korean markets and the KOSPI index, showing uncertainty and waving red flags. Chip stocks lagged behind with not much progress from open to close, though they didn't sell off or make new lows.
Western Digital reported earnings with a significant gap down. Micron was relatively flat from the start of the week, starting around $840 and closing at $880, representing a $40 per share gain, though this wasn't considered impressive for semiconductor or memory chip stocks.
A previous trade on Micron resulted in a $1,200 profit with the position fully closed. Palantir saw a loss that started between $1,000-$1,800 and ended at $244 in the red. The trading approach involved scalping by covering shorts when the stock was rejected at overbought levels, then buying the rip ups, and repeating the process to recover from the small loss.
The main focus was on position size management with no aggressive positions taken. Over $550 billion was added to the US market as weak job data reduced the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Earlier in the week, Kevin Walsh, head of the Federal Reserve, indicated he might be prepared to raise interest rates if inflation data rises, which was considered bearish and injected market uncertainty. This changed completely with today's job reports that showed 23,000 jobs lost instead of the expected 80,000 jobs created.
The weak labor market data supported the case for fewer rate hikes. The Federal Reserve has two main goals: price stability and a strong labor market. Raising interest rates would put out the fire of rising inflation but slows down the economy, which markets would not like.
Oil prices rose to nearly $100 a barrel due to tensions in the Middle East with the Strait of Hormuz being closed. Trump announced a peace deal earlier in the week, causing oil prices to drop sharply. It was confirmed that the US will lift its blockade of Iranian ports once shipping is restored, helping oil prices drop further.
Jerome Powell made it clear that the Federal Reserve is trying to put out one fire without adding fuel to the other fire. The current situation puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position where based on the labor report, markets are saying there's no way the Federal Reserve can support a rate hike.
Bond yields for 10-year, 30-year, and two-year treasuries saw a significant downtick. Lower bond yields are beneficial as the 10-year Treasury serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates. When bond yields were creeping up to 5%, it was noted that 7% mortgages were right around the corner. Lower yields now support mortgages potentially in the mid-6% range.
Bond yields are dropping due to less certainty that the Federal Reserve will raise rates and more likelihood of potential rate cuts. The US lifting its blockade on Iranian ports is causing oil prices to drop, which is bullish for the broader market. The non-farm payrolls coming in way lower than expected, with job losses instead of job creation, no longer supports the probability of a rate hike and possibly even supports a rate cut, which is bullish for the market.
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