Don't Panic! Trump Said No Deal With Iran Until Midterm?!
In a Nutshell
Trump said no Iran deal until after midterms, reversing an oil price crash and pushing oil futures, ETFs, and related stocks higher. Markets hit new highs on AI investment despite war, high yields, and CPI above 3%, but remain overbought short-term. The US government's 10% Intel stake is up 495% to a $52.9 billion unrealized gain in just 13 months.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Markets have been active with the NASDAQ recovering after nearly a 3% move higher the previous day. Markets remain in the green despite ongoing volatility.
Iran sent terms to mediators for a potential peace deal or ceasefire. Oil prices initially dropped on speculation of an agreement. However, Trump stated one hour ago that any deal with Iran would possibly occur after midterms, indicating no immediate agreement is expected.
Trump discussed the ongoing debate between destroying Iran versus allowing rebuilding. He stated Iran cannot have nuclear weapons and that the US has destroyed everything about them. An Iranian official was present at the event and was shown on camera throughout the speech.
Oil crashed to $91 following reports of Iran's potential offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days if the US eases its military blockade and stops attacks. After Trump's speech confirming no deal is imminent, oil futures, ETFs, and related companies recovered and traded higher. Oil is the highest contributor to rising inflation rates.
The NASDAQ has reached new all-time highs despite ongoing war, bond yields at 20-year highs, CPI above 3%, Fed rate hikes, and a housing crisis with over 500,000 more sellers than buyers. AI demand and investment is the primary driver maintaining elevated market levels.
AI is described as super useful, valuable, and receiving massive investment. While markets may be overvalued or overbought, the speaker acknowledges this perspective but notes the substantial capital flowing into AI companies. Markets are choosing to be irrational given the investment levels.
Markets are overbought in the short term with potential for a correction, but this does not warrant selling long-term investments. The recommendation is to avoid buying more or overleveraging at overbought levels to prevent discouragement from potential pullbacks. Being overleveraged at overbought levels is never ideal.
Diesel prices are at their highest level ever, up 88% since January when Trump began attacking Iran. Diesel is used for semis and freight transportation of all goods across the US. Rising diesel costs are expected to be passed to consumers, increasing prices for transported goods including food.
The US government holds a 10% stake in Intel purchased on August 22, 2025, acquiring 433 million shares at $20.47 per share for an $8.9 billion investment representing a 9.9% stake. Intel is currently trading at $121, making the government's stake worth approximately $52.9 billion with an unrealized gain of $44 billion, representing nearly 495% return in 13 months. Questions raised about whether the government would pay taxes on gains if sold, effectively paying taxes to itself.
Bitcoin is elevated with significant pullback potential. The speaker does not like Bitcoin or MSTR but acknowledges the market remains incredibly bullish. This is not an active sell-off but momentum favors the upside. Short positions should only be considered when criteria are met, not when the trend is strongly bullish. Intraday short plays require experience and are not recommended for beginners.
On the 1-minute timeframe, MSTR is pulling back to a common support range. The stock retested lows of $161 during the pre-market session. Markets may break support around $744, potentially creating a gap down to break-even levels.
After a huge rally, some form of pullback is expected and should not be surprising. Markets are incredibly elevated after yesterday's strong performance. The speaker offers a free Discord linked in the description for those interested in joining, along with a weekly challenge and giveaway opportunity. Live trading access is available through a one-time payment for lifetime membership at approximately $110 per day.
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