EEUU: Guerra y estanflación + Trampa en renta fija argentina | Cazadores de tendencias 09/04/2026

Rethinking Traditional Portfolios and New Investor Events14:39

Traditional 60/40 portfolios (60% S&P 500, 40% US Treasury long bonds) are like a Tyrannosaurus Rex heading toward extinction after working well for 40 years. 2022 was one of the worst years for conservative investors with bonds declining amid war conflict, requiring a rethink.

New small table meetings for 10 investors focus on portfolio setup, advisor alignment, patrimonial planning, tax minimization, and inheritance organization. Contact Juan Pablo at closeinvestors.com for info, especially for large investors with considerable heritage to hear alternative views amid potential crisis worse than 2022.

Oil Trend Change and VIX Collapse17:37

Oil shows a trend change with relative strength despite intervention and Iran conflict. Resolution might drop prices, but unlikely to $60 short-term. Strait of Hormuz traffic won't fully normalize; likely tolls lead to higher oil prices, favoring energy and changing energy market dynamics.

VIX collapsed in last two days to pre-Iran conflict lows. VIX measures expected S&P 500 volatility and market fear: 15-20 calm, 20-30 high, >30 nervous, >60 panic. Market believes situation is organizing despite news. Futures curve shows temporary conflict conviction: spot $98/barrel, year-end futures $73.

Question: Does oil anticipate more inflation? (Invite comments.)

S&P 500 Strength and Portfolio Diversification21:35

S&P 500 moved above 50 and 200 averages in two days after being below; weekly chart confirms no broken medium/long-term uptrend despite normal correction. Not ideal for long-term buy-and-hold like Nvidia due to high valuations; better to diversify into emerging markets, value over growth stocks, selective tech, active management.