Elon's Biggest FSD Lie Just Got Exposed
In a Nutshell
Tesla's stock dropped 7% post-earnings despite beating expectations, as Elon Musk admitted HW3 hardware cannot achieve unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD), backpedaling on 2019 promises and offering HW3 FSD buyers discounts or upgrades—impacting millions of vehicles and billions in liability. The company's sky-high 380x earnings valuation hinges on unproven dreams like Optimus robots and robo-taxis, amid rising capex over $25B in 2026 and flat car sales growth. Investors face premium risk from repeated broken promises, but holding may pay off if tolerant of volatility.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Tesla investors are questioning why Elon lied. Ricky from Techbut Solutions live streamed Tesla's earnings, warning beginners to play it safe. Market rallied on positive earnings, but warned Elon's earnings call talk could shift sentiment negatively, leading to sell-off, which happened. Tesla stock dropped from highs of 406 to lows of 377, a 7% downturn. Overall, barely in the red, but upsetting compared to past highs.
Tesla reported better than expected earnings, revenue, earnings, gross margins not bad. Trades at high premium, over 380 times earnings, viewed as overvalued as car company. Dream factor from Optimus Robot, robo taxi keeps premium; just needs to meet or beat expectations minimally.
Total cash flow nearly $45 billion, the most ever.
Tesla confirmed HW3 cannot achieve unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) from Elon Musk. Offering HW3 FSD buyers discount trade-in for AI4 cars or upgrade computer and cameras. Backpedaling on 2019 Q1/Q2 earnings call promise of full autonomy in one year.
Elon overpromises almost all the time, one of greatest minds but talks a lot. Tesla not cheap stock, enormous valuation as car company, higher than all other public car companies combined due to FSD, Optimus, not just cars.
Optimus no major concerns, but 2026 capex guided over $25 billion amid low consumer spending projections. Paying for six factories in various stages. Free cash flow expected negative rest of year, up from $8 billion capex last year. Building world's biggest chip manufacturing plants.
Sign in to read the full notes
Get access to AI-generated notes, topic timestamps, and more.