FOMC Decision Week: Oil Prices Surge, Market Volatility Peaks
In a Nutshell
US oil prices surge to $105/barrel amid Trump's planned extension of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, fueling inflation and reducing FOMC rate cut odds (98.9% pause probability today). Jerome Powell's final FOMC press conference at 2 p.m. ET precedes volatile big tech earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet, with warnings for beginners to avoid open positions. Markets eye Mag 7 AI spending results; watch live streams on YouTube and check Instagram/description links for trading sessions.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
US oil prices extend gains to $105 a barrel as President Trump prepares to extend the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for months.
Today is the FOMC rate decision in 3 hours and 23 minutes, when the Federal Reserve announces if they will raise, pause, or cut interest rates. According to the Fed rate monitor tool, there is a 98.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will pause.
Why aren't they cutting rates? Oil prices going up based on inflation reports are causing inflation to go higher. As long as inflation continues higher, the Federal Reserve cannot justify cutting rates because cutting rates is inflationary and will exacerbate the issue.
If the blockade continues or escalations arise, oil prices will continue pushing higher, making the likelihood of rate cuts even less certain.
Today, Jerome Powell will deliver his last FOMC press conference as Federal Reserve Chair. He is a man of few words, knows how influential his words are in the market, and does a very good job not overstepping that line unlike other politicians.
They plan to live stream the press conference for free on their YouTube channel. Drop a thumbs up on this video to get it over 500 likes, subscribe, and turn on post notifications so YouTube notifies when they go live.
NASDAQ is up about 0.5%, before big tech earnings after markets close: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet.
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