🚨GET READY: INFLATION REPORT TOMORROW...
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Coinbase lost $667 million in a quarter, yet still up 2% in aftermarket hours. Unexpected earnings report despite Bitcoin at all-time highs. Speaker surprised, expected at least one good earnings from Coinbase, but it was terrible.
CPI inflation report tomorrow, Friday, February 13th, 1 hour before market opens (6:30 a.m. Arizona time). Will go live if video gets over 1,000 likes—drop thumbs up, subscribe for free live session to watch markets react.
CPI is monthly inflation report from US Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov/CPI). Tracks if inflation goes up or down month over month. Matters because it affects costs of goods and services, and Federal Reserve watches it closely.
For markets to push higher, want inflation lower, closer to Fed's 2% target—makes rate cuts more likely as inflation under control. If higher than expected, Fed can't justify cuts soon (only one rate cut projected for 2026). Bulls want lower-than-expected; bears want higher.
Expectation: 2.5% overall CPI (previous 2.7%).
Bummed by results despite Bitcoin all-time highs in Q4 2025. Reported EPS of -$2.49 vs. expected $0.96; net loss $667 million. Questions on spending. Users currently unable to buy, sell, or transfer crypto due to platform issues.
Brian Armstrong (CEO, founder) sold over 1.5 million Coinbase shares ($500+ million) since April 2025, as stock hit all-time highs through January 2026. Chart shows sales during pumps to overbought levels, retest of support, lower high at $446/share, now at lows of $142 (down 68%).
Doesn't like crypto personally, but open to businesses making money in space. Attracted by low P/E ratio of 11-12x vs. competitors. Earnings discouraging. Technically 68% discount from highs; testing major support. Bullish case: if markets recover to prior highs.
Overall markets near all-time highs (QQQ/NASDAQ down 5-6%), big tech bullish, but Coinbase down 68%. Red flags: CEO selling, Q4 2025 earnings, cycles.
Makes money via trading fees and order flow. Revenue peaks in bull runs, drops in bear markets/dry spells—fact-based on history. Concern if entering dry spell.
Q1 subscription and services guidance: $550-630 million (down from Q4 2025 $727 million). Lowering expectations signals risk; why lower if markets expected higher? Coinbase acts as leveraged proxy for Bitcoin/crypto participation—high trading = high fees/revenue.
No stranger to downturns: traded in $300s in 2021, sold to $31 lows. $140 cheap, but can get cheaper based on outlook.
If bullish on Coinbase/crypto and markets push higher, could recover. But downturn adds selling pressure, Bitcoin sell-off slows trading, Coinbase lower. Just because it's cheap doesn't mean it can't get cheaper. Food for thought—prepare for future, be realistic. Possible more downturn if Bitcoin sells off; long if uptick/another leg up.
Excited for tomorrow's CPI, hopes to see viewers live. Join LPP team for live morning trading (second link in description). End year green. Happy Thursday.
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