Huge Market Reaction! Here Is What You Need To Know
In a Nutshell
Markets surged on reports Trump may ease Iran sanctions and release frozen assets, reversing earlier losses as the speaker flipped from short to long MSTR then back to short, netting $3,500. The 10-year yield hit 24-year highs and diesel export bans are pushing fuel prices above $9/gallon, raising consumer inflation risks ahead of this week’s PCE and labor data. A 73% chance of a Fed rate hike in four weeks now hinges on those reports, while Nvidia’s record buyback lifted it 2.65% as the only green Mag-7 stock near all-time highs.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Markets began to quickly gap up after Trump's colleagues provided a quick update. The speaker was filming a market update at 9:43 a.m. Arizona time when news began influencing markets. The speaker had previously shorted the market as it sold off with the LPP team, but tested previous support range and was not confident Trump would not intervene. The speaker went long on MSTR during the rally with a very small position, closed it out, then opened a short position, currently up $3,500 on the day from an overbought reversal.
The LPP team watched the speaker short MSTR live during the selloff, received updates when going long, and received notification when taking profit and going short. LPP offers one-time payment with lifetime access for less than $110 per day, designed for beginners. The sale is live until the end of September, with the second link in the description.
US officials told Iran that Trump is getting ready to ease sanctions and release frozen Iranian assets if Iran makes progress on its nuclear program. Talks are continuing through mediators, but the US wants guarantees that Iran is serious about a deal. Iran has stated they will never let go of their nuclear program. The US maintains they will not sign a deal without Iran acknowledging they need to stop developing nuclear weapons. It has been over 100 days, and the speaker questions where the situation goes from here.
Markets sold off with uncertainty around the 10-year Treasury, which reached a 24-year high. Oil is pushing higher as Trump rejects the Iran peace deal. Russia extended its ban on diesel exports for producers until November. Diesel prices in California are over $9 per gallon. Diesel fuel costs for semis, which transport everything across the US, could see 80-90% uptick, which will be passed down to consumers and likely appear in CPI data.
This week features the PCE report, the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation. The speaker will be live streaming the inflation report. Also scheduled is the labor market report including JOLTS job openings data. There is currently a 73% probability, up from over the weekend, that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at the next meeting in four weeks and two days. The labor market report and PCE report will shift rate hike probabilities based on whether they come in strong or weak.
The market reached 749 last week with multiple Mag 7 companies making new all-time highs. Nvidia announced one of the largest buybacks, causing markets to push up aggressively. Nvidia is the only green stock, up 2.65% while pulling back slightly. The speaker notes Nvidia is a juggernaut company but questions if it's a good deal at current levels near all-time highs. The speaker is invested in Nvidia long-term but notes the short-term volatility concerns.
The speaker warns that all red flags are presenting themselves with the bond market, which the US will not be able to ignore for much longer. This explains why Trump officials hinted at a peace deal to provide market certainty. Trump has stated there will not be an Iran deal until after midterms. The speaker questions Trump's campaign promises versus actions, mentioning a $5,000 check being offered as incentive.
The speaker notes both political sides appear corrupt and questions whether to vote for either side. The speaker states this market over the past year and a half has been the most manipulated ever seen, with no previous president so willing to manipulate the market and actively talk about it. The speaker expresses concern about officials enriching themselves while in public office.
The NASDAQ market is down 1% after aggressively trying to recover. The speaker warns that if support breaks, another leg down could follow, with the rest of the market potentially following the NASDAQ selloff. The speaker commits to continuously keeping viewers updated on market-moving news.
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