I F*KED Up… My INSANE Stock Market Prediction For 2026
In a Nutshell
Graeme reveals a critical portfolio mispositioning he caught in time, prompting his biggest changes since 2020: shifting from excess cash/treasuries (25%) and exiting all non-primary real estate due to California's hostile landlord environment, into heavier S&P 500 dollar-cost averaging, 28% international/emerging markets, and slight Bitcoin ETF exposure for asymmetric upside. He regrets illiquid private equity locks and over-cautious cash hoarding, emphasizing periodic reviews, simplicity, liquidity, and treating dips as buys despite high valuations. Key principles: review portfolios regularly as life changes, prioritize growth over protection when young, and favor simple, liquid assets like indices over complex alternatives.
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Graeme made a major mistake that would have screwed his portfolio if not caught in time. On paper, everything looked correct, but deeper analysis showed he was positioned incorrectly. This led to his biggest changes since 2020. He breaks down his entire portfolio, where he's investing his own money through 2026, and biggest opportunities almost no one realizes. How you invest over the next 12 months could cost you more than thought.
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For over a decade, religiously dollar cost averaging into S&P 500 index fund daily, regardless of market levels. Strategy worked incredibly well; S&P 500 outperformed nearly every asset class, benefiting from consistency without timing.
Now investing heavier despite stretched valuations, uncertainty, and fear-inducing headlines. Every time tried being cautious or waiting for drops, regretted it. Not once in over a decade did sitting on sidelines waiting work better than consistent investing. Funneling more monthly income into stock market, treating dips as buying opportunities. Worst sentiment is usually best time to buy.
28% of account in international diversification. Historically underperforms US, but last year up 38% vs S&P 500's 29%; this year up 7% vs S&P break-even. US is large and established; other countries have more room to grow. Investing more into these and emerging markets (riskier, volatile, but asymmetric upside for diversification). Predominantly in US, but international as hedge: if US does well, great; if not, smooths returns. Especially important now.
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