I F*KED Up… My INSANE Stock Market Prediction For 2026
In a Nutshell
Graeme reveals a critical portfolio mispositioning he caught in time, prompting his biggest changes since 2020: shifting from excess cash/treasuries (25%) and exiting all non-primary real estate due to California's hostile landlord environment, into heavier S&P 500 dollar-cost averaging, 28% international/emerging markets, and slight Bitcoin ETF exposure for asymmetric upside. He regrets illiquid private equity locks and over-cautious cash hoarding, emphasizing periodic reviews, simplicity, liquidity, and treating dips as buys despite high valuations. Key principles: review portfolios regularly as life changes, prioritize growth over protection when young, and favor simple, liquid assets like indices over complex alternatives.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Graeme made a major mistake that would have screwed his portfolio if not caught in time. On paper, everything looked correct, but deeper analysis showed he was positioned incorrectly. This led to his biggest changes since 2020. He breaks down his entire portfolio, where he's investing his own money through 2026, and biggest opportunities almost no one realizes. How you invest over the next 12 months could cost you more than thought.
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For over a decade, religiously dollar cost averaging into S&P 500 index fund daily, regardless of market levels. Strategy worked incredibly well; S&P 500 outperformed nearly every asset class, benefiting from consistency without timing.
Now investing heavier despite stretched valuations, uncertainty, and fear-inducing headlines. Every time tried being cautious or waiting for drops, regretted it. Not once in over a decade did sitting on sidelines waiting work better than consistent investing. Funneling more monthly income into stock market, treating dips as buying opportunities. Worst sentiment is usually best time to buy.
28% of account in international diversification. Historically underperforms US, but last year up 38% vs S&P 500's 29%; this year up 7% vs S&P break-even. US is large and established; other countries have more room to grow. Investing more into these and emerging markets (riskier, volatile, but asymmetric upside for diversification). Predominantly in US, but international as hedge: if US does well, great; if not, smooths returns. Especially important now.
Stock allocation: invest heavy into S&P, heavy into emerging markets, stop holding excess cash.
Selling all real estate except current home due to Los Angeles and California housing market: regulation, restrictions, villainizing landlords make it impossible for small landlord to stay in business.
Bought properties 2012-2018 at low prices with fixed 3% mortgages. Now: insurance costs doubled, repair costs tripled, need $400/hour lawyer for every rental communication to avoid lawsuits. City litigious: improper disclosures, undocumented repairs, wrongly worded text = lawsuit. Even if win, lose due to costs/time.
Attorney on X: Tenant moves in, stops paying rent, landlord follows book. Mediation: tenant demands 4 months to vacate, cash upfront, waiver of owed rent, sealed record. This is landlord's best case vs. legal costs, trial, 75-day sheriff lockout delay. Tenant's lawyer asks for amount matching landlord fees; hard/expensive to collect from tenants with no assets.
2012 example: tenant grew weed in garage, stopped rent; eviction cost $1,500, 60 days. Today: $50-60,000.
Property values strong, so good time to exit. Still profitable, but selling and buying government treasury yields same return without risk, headache, hassle, illiquidity.
Big banks pay 0.01% interest. SoFi: all-in-one app to bank, borrow, invest. Open checking/savings with eligible direct deposit: competitive APY, no fees. Up to 4% APY (8x national average). New high-yield savings + $1,000+ direct deposit: $50-$400 cash bonus. Paid up to 2 days early, FDIC insurance up to $3 million via network. Visit sofi.com/granking or QR code.
Dollar cost averaging into Bitcoin ETF. Thesis: invest amount okay to lose; if up, retire bloodline. Down 50% from peak, but increasing allocation slightly. Held up well last month. Best time to buy when everyone thinks it's done. Small portfolio part, especially with quantum computing advances.
Institutional participation reduces volatility/drawdowns, making it portfolio efficiency tool. Reasoning: governments' massive deficits, climbing national debt, accelerating institutional adoption = compelling asymmetric upside for diversification. Could be worth nothing, but better small exposure than none.
25% portfolio in cash/treasuries: tax-free munis at blended 4.2%, government treasuries at 3.12%. Took too far; too much given low spending. Mindset shifted to protection over growth: playing not to lose vs. to win. When young, be aggressive; later, avoid losing years of growth.
Became too comfortable; position grew larger than needed. Now deploying into markets/stocks/emerging. Great rotation.
2005 Ford GT (2021 purchase): up 65% (matches S&P); like index fund, will hit $1 million in 10-20 years. Best purchase last 5 years.
2010 Tesla Roadster: lost 30%. Thought original Tesla (1,500 exist), like original iPhone; but values plummet (Elon Musk association, repairs). Lesson: pick correctly to drive free/make money. Safe picks: Honda S2000, Lotus Elise, Dodge Viper GTS, manual Audi R8, manual Lamborghini Gallardo, Ferrari 458, Mercedes SLS AMG (up 2-5%/year). Lifestyle purchases; enjoy even if not appreciating.
Early Disney fan: Mark Davis concept sketches (Haunted Mansion, Nightmare Before Christmas hand-drawn), signed Tommy Pickles Rugrats cel (first episode), signed Michael Jordan from Space Jam. Hobby with money potential in niche.
Watches: collecting, some did well (full video for members: what paid, current worth).
Channel members: early video access, weekly exclusives, full watch/art tours.
Money in private equity/early-stage companies (6 years ago). On paper good, but locked up years/indefinitely: mandatory holding, dilution, small annual redemption windows, secondary market 70% discounts (if buyer). Can't exit even up 300%. Lesson: don't undervalue simplicity.
Not advising to copy; situation unique, long timeline allows aggression. Principle: don't ignore portfolio on autopilot. Conditions, life, risk tolerance change; review periodically. Catching mistake saves hassle next decade.
Best portfolio: allows living without worry; fewer moving parts, more liquidity, works for you.
Be honest, run numbers, change even if used to work. Smash like/subscribe.
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