I Just Invested $160,000 In This Stock
In a Nutshell
The investor deployed $160,000 into Meta Platforms (META) by aggressively buying the dip across multiple entries from $737 to $613 per share, despite a $16,000 paper loss, viewing recent 4-5% drops from a New York Times article on the "Avocado" AI model's two-month delay as overblown market overreactions. META trades at a cheap 21x forward P/E and 18x 2027 earnings with 20-25% expected revenue growth, dwarfing Tesla's $1.5T valuation despite Tesla's stalled growth, shrinking profits, and far worse 200x+ P/E amid similar delays. Long-term bullishness stems from META's ad-driven revenue tied to global GDP, healthy FCF despite CapEx, and undervaluation—every purchase will profit as short-term AI noise fades.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
As investors, we're told portfolios should represent the best companies in the stock market. Analyze companies carefully, create a portfolio of the best ones, and buy on dips when stock prices go down. Many investors don't follow this: they buy good companies initially but sell when they dip, due to explanations for every dip suggesting the company deserved it.
Meta Platforms is currently in a dip. Newer position, down $16,000, but continuing to buy repeatedly.
- January 29th: Bought $45,000 at $737 per share.
- February 2nd: Another $10,000 cheaper.
- Next day: Another $10,000.
- Stock dropped another $20: Bought $20,000 worth.
- February 4th: $40,000 (big buy), then evening $10,000 at $672 per share.
- February 6th: $10,000 at $657.
- Three days later: $10,000.
- February 11th: $8,000 at $669.
- March 13th: $3,300 at $613, after plunge due to news article.
Total invested: $160,000 in Meta.
News article: New York Times breaking story on Meta delaying rollout of new AI model, codenamed Avocado. Caused 4% drop. Wall Street pricing in pessimism: Meta not up to task, can't create competitive AI, delaying plans, can't compete with Google, wasting hundreds of billions on CapEx.
Meta is third largest holding in portfolio (while stock is going down). If it goes up a little, could become largest position. Very confident on Meta.
Article epitomizes investor concerns causing repeated dips, despite growing revenue quickly and low valuation.
Mark Zuckerberg said in July that the company's new artificial intelligence models would "push the frontier in the next year or so."
Article claims Zuckerberg unlikely to hit deadline (per three anonymous sources). Misrepresents: He said "next year or so," not exact 12 months—could be beyond a year.
Avocado model fallen short of leaders like Google, OpenAI, Anthropic on internal tests for reasoning, coding, writing (anonymous sources not authorized to speak).
Meta started months ago, hasn't caught up to rivals working for years/decade. Rational: reasonable not to have surpassed yet. But sounds concerning to investors.
Avocado outperformed Meta's previous model and better than Google's Gemini 2.5 (March), but not as strong as Gemini 3.0 (November). Gemini 3.0 insanely good at logic, reasoning, math, deduction.
Due to not catching up, delaying Avocado by two months. Caused 5% single-day drop. Investors punished stock on delay news.
Leaders of Meta's AI division discussed temporarily licensing Gemini to power products (no decisions reached).
Meta started AI months ago, surpassed last year's leaders, working toward current flagships. Investors see massive problem; two-month delay = 5% selloff.
Market myopic. Meta at 21x forward P/E, 18x on 2027 earnings (incorporates all CapEx, Meta AI, Reality Labs). Expected 20-25% revenue growth in 2026.
Most investors unaware Avocado was planned this month; sold on delay news.
Meta market cap: $1.57 trillion (near $1.6T).
Tesla: $1.5T market cap (same size as Meta). Tesla revenue growth halted mid-2023, shrinking 3% YoY. TTM net income: Tesla $3.79B, Meta $60.46B (Meta orders of magnitude more profitable). Meta revenues growing.
Tesla epitomizes delays: Elon in 2020 predicted "maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure we'll have over a million robotaxis." Still not happened by 2026 (half decade later). Yet Tesla at $1.5T valuation, 200x P/E.
Trailing P/E: Tesla from 90x to 360x; Meta steady at 26x.
Market wrong: Tesla overpriced, Meta underpriced. Putting money where mouth is.
Meta grows fast, expected to grow fast this year. Business reliant on ad revenue from millions of small businesses (represents global GDP growth). Improving ad generation, optimization, product listings, marketing relevance.
Market fixated on short-term like Avocado release (nobody will remember in a year). Long-term sound: low valuation, low P/S, low EV/EBITDA, healthy FCF yield despite CapEx pour.
CapEx not 100% AI training—supports entire business (half world uses platform daily for hours, needs servers). Even if AI not bleeding-edge, CapEx useful for platform needs.
Meta unique opportunity; investors spooked by irrelevant news. Every Meta buy at every price so far will be profitable. Will update when it happens.
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