Is Now A Good Time To Buy Semi Stocks Or Wait?!?
In a Nutshell
Semiconductors are rebounding but face resistance, with stocks like Micron and SanDisk up sharply yet vulnerable to further downside if support breaks. Geopolitical tensions with Iran—oil exports, potential Strait of Hormuz closure, and US strikes—are the key risk, likely pushing oil prices higher, inflation up, and markets lower. The core takeaway is to size positions small or stay in cash until confirmation, since uncertainty dominates and Trump’s statements may only temporarily prop up prices.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
The discussion focuses exclusively on semiconductors as tech begins to rebound with semiconductors leading the way. The NASDAQ market gapped up with slight resistance around 725 and is now retesting that same resistance. The central question is whether it is worth buying the dip or if things can get worse before they get better.
Micron was up 6 to 7% on the day with a push from lows of 930 during yesterday's overnight hours. SanDisk was up 8 to 9% reaching highs of nearly 1,900. Intel has not performed as well recently after being resilient earlier and is now falling behind. The stocks that are up significantly were among the hottest performing stocks of 2026, reaching highs of 23-2400 before retracing to lows of 1500, presenting a potential dip-buying opportunity.
Although the NASDAQ market appears fair, it is still trading within range on the 4-hour timeframe with common support around 700 and common resistance around 740 for QQQ. Almost all MAG 7 companies are red after a slight recovery: Amazon is in the red, Nvidia is in the red, Microsoft is slightly in the red but recovering, Meta is in the green leading the way, and Tesla traded at lows of 390, hit highs of 400, then began retracing.
No one should decide for others whether markets will only push higher. The speaker believes bulls have more ground to stand on not because fundamentals make sense, but because technically Trump continues to manipulate the market by stating Iran is eager and begging for a deal, propping markets higher when it is known to be untrue. This has been stated for the past 12 to 13 weeks and is all fake. Trump knows that even when attacks occur, tweeting about optimism for a deal causes markets to recover quickly.
If support is broken, there will be huge selling pressure. Despite attractive moves today with semiconductors like Micron up 7% and SanDisk up to 9%, confidence in continued recovery is uncertain. No one is 100% right 100% of the time, and controlling the market would mean making as much money as Trump.
Updates during the week include Iran rushing at least 10 million barrels of crude oil and fuel overnight in anticipation of imminent resumption of the US naval blockade that Trump threatened. This follows the US revocation of Iran's oil sanction waiver 48 hours ago and the past two nights of US strikes on Iran. Iran initially struck a series of boats at the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's rush to export is planned as a buffer using a stockpile built over the past weeks, having now exported more than 70 million barrels of crude oil, giving Iran the ability to fully close the Strait of Hormuz in response to a US naval blockade without collapsing its own oil economy.
Iran knew the US was likely to strike again and has been rushing oil out for the past few weeks. They can now prolong the closure. Trump stated the US had 4 weeks of reserves, which is why he needed to sign a ceasefire agreement with Iran. Iran now has their own stockpile, putting them in a favorable position if they choose to close the strait.
If Iran closes the strait, oil prices will go up. This is why there is an oil watch list. As of right now, as markets tried to recover, oil pulled back from lows of 31 to a quick push of 37, with UCO trading around 34-35. As the weekend approaches, announcements from both countries will act as positive or negative catalysts. Signs of uncertainty about closures of the Strait of Hormuz and the blockade in effect will push oil prices up and markets are likely to drop.
When oil prices go up, it negatively impacts the cost of oil to consumers and producers, causing the inflation rate on both CPI and PPI to go up. Oil will be a big focus if any announcements are presented. Markets had a nice recovery but are now testing previous resistance. Markets added $300 billion as soon as they opened without any positive announcement.
Technically many semiconductors were oversold but can continue to sell off more if uncertainty presents itself and fear gets injected. Micron announced plans to invest up to $3 billion to strengthen the US semiconductor supply chain ecosystem, viewed as news to prop up markets, though it is a promise that may or may not be kept.
A plan of action is needed based on current market positioning. Questions to consider include whether markets are cheap enough to buy into, whether to go long on the NASDAQ or semiconductors, or whether more fear and uncertainty will come before full recovery. There is no right or wrong answer. Position size should reflect uncertainty. With $10,000 to trade, there is no need to go in with all $10,000. Going in with $500 or $1,000 is acceptable, or waiting for confirmation for clearer direction. When in doubt, cashing out is acceptable. Only those who did not prepare for a sell-off panic when it presents itself.
None can predict but all can prepare. The main focus is on Micron or SanDisk with overbought reversals and huge pullback potential. If markets give back gains and accept negative news without Trump manipulation, selling off can begin, allowing intraday shorting of Micron or SanDisk. This depends on favorable direction, which is still too early to tell. The NASDAQ is testing resistance but not fully selling off. Confirmation will be waited for and announced to the LPP team. The job is to inform on both bullish and bearish sides; it is up to each person to decide which opportunities are worth taking and which risks are acceptable.
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