Is The Market Wrong About The Fed? Live Analysis
In a Nutshell
The speaker believes the Fed won't raise rates tomorrow despite 91.8% market probability, expecting markets to rally on the pause while current conditions are overbought with record bond yields and unaffordable housing. They're avoiding aggressive trades around the FOMC announcement, preferring to wait for confirmation before shorting and emphasizing small position sizes with strict risk management. Current positions include a small short on MSTR, with focus on minimizing losses rather than catching every move.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
91.8% probability that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates tomorrow, though the speaker remains unconvinced they will actually do so. The Federal Reserve will officially announce their rate decision in one day, one hour, and eleven minutes, followed by a press conference 30 minutes later.
A short position was taken on Intel during the live trading session. The stock gapped up shortly after markets opened then had a gap down. The short was closed out immediately after making $1,000 because it wasn't breaking pre-market support around 9830 and lacked progress.
A second trade was taken on Nvidia that broke even with a $72 loss. The position size was relatively small, and once it reached break even, the position was closed. The focus today was to avoid entering trades that could be regretted tomorrow.
Despite seeing posts everywhere about the FOMC rate decision and the 91% probability, there is distrust in the consensus. Kevin Walsh, hand-appointed by Trump, has always been very optimistic about having a task force to keep inflation and the job market under control. The belief is that he will bend the knee to Trump's request of not raising rates.
Markets are considered way overbought and overvalued. Global bond yields have hit record highs. US homes are now the most unaffordable in history. The 10-year Treasury in Japan surged to 3%, and the 10-year Treasury in the US crossed 5.025%, the highest level since 2007.
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