LIVE NOW: AMAZON & APPLE EARNINGS REPORT TODAY!!!
In a Nutshell
Markets pumped hard on Amazon's massive 217% EPS beat and rallied 6% intraday, while Apple missed revenue expectations and fell 2.2% after initially rising, highlighting extreme volatility around earnings. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks and no fundamental changes, sentiment flipped 180° from yesterday's panic selling to aggressive buying, showing markets are oversold and eager to recover. The speaker warns against FOMO buying at elevated levels or over-leveraging, citing upcoming Japanese rate decisions as potential catalysts for another swing.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Markets are having an incredible day, with Apple recently hitting new all-time highs. Apple is trading down 1.3% at $333 per share, while Amazon is trading at $235 per share. Apple is viewed as one of the most self-sufficient Magnificent 7 stocks that doesn't always move in line with the broader market or other tech stocks. At current levels, questions arise about whether Apple represents a good value for investment. The speaker notes that investing or trading right before earnings reports is a volatile, higher-risk period.
Markets have been trading irrationally today, with many chip stocks up over 20% despite no fundamental changes. Markets were technically oversold and gapped up, but this rally could continue if Apple and Amazon report better-than-expected earnings. Today's rally may be partially attributed to Microsoft's good earnings, while Meta reported concerns about over-investment and disclosed over $700 billion in capex guidance.
Despite ongoing escalation in the Middle East with a recent attack announced, markets do not appear to care yet. There was significant panic selling yesterday, particularly visible in QQQ, but NASDAQ appears super resilient and incredibly bullish today. This represents a complete 180-degree shift in market sentiment within just 24 hours, serving as a reminder to never be afraid to invest at oversold levels but also not to over-leverage positions.
The South Korean market is cited as an example for beginners: invest only with actual capital, never use leverage. Markets technically closed with Apple down 1.3% at $333 and Amazon at $235. Amazon came from highs of $278, raising questions about whether it can pull a Microsoft-like recovery to all-time highs or if earnings will reveal something not already priced in.
Markets officially closed and began waiting for earnings. Amazon immediately responded positively, moving up 2%, then 3%, then 4% on the day. NASDAQ gapped up in response. The rally continued to 5% and then 6% in the green for Amazon. Amazon's EPS showed a 217% surprise, described as destroying expectations. Revenue is reported as great, though concerns exist about capex overspending. Amazon maintains a fair PE ratio.
Apple has an excellent recent track record of reporting great earnings with positive market reactions. The speaker notes Apple has an amazing track record of reporting better than expected earnings, with their recent three earnings leading to positive reactions, though they had five consecutive red reactions previously. Both companies statistically do an excellent job reporting earnings, though markets don't always react accordingly.
The speaker emphasizes loving when successful companies report great earnings and earn positive reactions. Concerns are raised about over-speculation and whether markets might be overreacting. Markets have been incredibly volatile, with quick rallies sometimes giving back gains just as rapidly. The current PE ratio stands at 40.
At 4:30 p.m., confusion arises about Apple's reporting timing, with expectations of 20 minutes after close versus the actual 30-minute delay. MSTR also reported earnings today. ServiceNow is down 5% despite being one of the most bullish days of the year. Microsoft began dumping despite reporting great earnings the previous day, raising questions about market manipulation versus leveraged buying.
Markets always overreact according to the speaker. A 4% move for NASDAQ in one day seems wild given the context of ongoing Iran attacks and potential Japanese rate changes. Amazon needs to hold its gains. A 15% move on a $3.35 trillion company is described as steep. Microsoft is noted as having earned the right to rally after great earnings, but markets overreacted.
Market sentiment is described as really strong, with raw news being less critical than usual. The two main areas of concern are the South Korean market's influence on memory chip stocks due to overleveraged traders, and the Japanese central bank's rate decision tomorrow. Markets moved irrationally over 24 hours - pumping before a Fed meeting, selling off aggressively, then rallying from overnight hours.
Amazon is testing new highs at $256, approaching previous highs. This movement occurs before Apple reports earnings. Amazon is testing new highs with the market responding to great earnings, with EPS described as blowing expectations out of the water.
Sentiment is very strong, but caution is advised against getting overly excited or leveraging at elevated levels. FOMO buying is discouraged at critical levels. The speaker acknowledges being normally bearish but felt the need to discourage carrying shorts overnight while remaining open to pullbacks. Markets are eager to recover from oversold conditions.
The speaker closed shorts on Micron leading up to earnings, knowing Google and Microsoft represent two of the strongest companies. Meta and Tesla are identified as the most speculative, with Meta being more volatile. Apple is viewed as not volatile enough for the speaker's trading style, though suitable for beginners due to slower price movements.
Investing Pro software is promoted at $7.95/month for basic or nearly $20/month for Pro Plus, with the first link in the description. The software is used for fundamental analysis of companies being considered for trading or investing.
Bitcoin is noted as going up to $45K. A poll shows 61% of viewers bullish on Apple. NASDAQ is at 686 when Apple begins reporting.
Apple responds positively initially at 1.3%, but then begins tanking. Amazon holds strong while Apple drops 2.2%. Revenue is down 2% quarter over quarter. Concerns include the stock being priced in already and trading at too expensive a premium. Apple's market cap is $5 trillion.
Apple is defended as not being trash but rather one of the most valuable publicly traded companies. The question becomes whether Apple is a good deal at current levels. The speaker has trimmed long positions as Apple hit new all-time highs and bought dips on semi and chip stocks. Apple is viewed as trading at a higher premium compared to companies with lower premiums.
Questions arise about whether markets will get rejected for another leg down or break above to rally back to highs of 740. The speaker would have been confident if Apple had come in with a strong rally. Apple is too big to slip without influencing overall markets significantly.
Apple would not be at the top of the speaker's list for trading opportunities due to current valuations. Two things can be right simultaneously - Meta is a growing company with highest-ever revenue levels, but concerns exist about heavy capex investment in AI. Investors must decide their own risk tolerance with such companies.
Tomorrow brings the Japanese central bank's decision on potential rate increases, which could create significant market impact similar to August 2024 carry trade events. The speaker mentions being invested in Apple long-term but trimming positions at recent highs.
Nothing fundamentally changed from yesterday's selling pressure to today's rally - it was simply an oversold opportunity with eager buyers creating a nice swing up. Markets are at a critical point where they could either begin truly gapping down or sentiment could shift. Traditional patterns suggest things escalate going into Friday, though no crystal ball exists for prediction.
Investing Pro offers 60% off with a few hours left to get the deal. The first link in the description leads to the offer. For access to daily live trading sessions, a one-time payment provides lifetime access. Viewers can join immediately and start watching live trading sessions as soon as tomorrow, especially if markets begin to recover. Today marks the first day the sale will close out. The speaker appreciates viewers' time and hopes for thumbs up engagement. The speaker appreciates viewers tuning into the live session. The goal is to end the year on a green note.
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