LIVE NOW: CPI DATA INFLATION REPORT!
In a Nutshell
CPI data came in exactly at 3.4% as expected, with Core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month versus 0.2% expected, yet markets rallied on relief. FedWatch shows a 90% probability of a rate hike next week, prompting the speaker to advise staying in cash and avoiding aggressive positions into the decision.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Ricky from Learn Plan Profit is live at 5:26 a.m. on September 11th waiting for the CPI inflation report release. Markets are showing a relief rally with QQQ in the green ahead of the data. Market expectation for CPI is 3.4%.
The last two CPI reports either came in lower than expected or as expected. The official release website is bls.gov/cpi. If CPI comes in higher than expected, markets are expected to drop. If CPI comes in lower than expected, markets can rally.
There are less than two minutes remaining before the report release. Trading right before a major economic report carries risk as markets can gap up or down. Micron (MU) is up 1.4%. MSTR has dropped from highs of 145 to lows of 128, with potential for recovery if inflation comes in low.
The CPI report came in at 3.4% as expected. Initial confusion about a 3.9% reading was clarified as being related to the gasoline index. Core CPI rose 0.3% for the month, higher than the expected 0.2% increase. Core CPI for the year came in at 2.4% as expected.
All items rose 3.4% over the past 12 months after rising 3.5% the previous month. All items less food and energy rose 2.5% over the past year. Overall CPI came in at 3.4% for seasonal adjustment.
Fuel oil saw a 10.1% increase, one of the largest increases seen in recent months. Utility piped gas services showed a large decrease. With oil still rising, this presents a concern for the upcoming month.
The NASDAQ returned to previous highs with markets celebrating the relief rally. There is a 69% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. The core CPI month increase came in at 0.3% instead of the expected 0.2%, making it technically higher than expected for the month, though still within line overall.
Nvidia, CoreWeave, and other stocks are up due to Oracle's performance. CoreWeave shows an oversold reversal pattern. PLTR remains at elevated levels after reporting earnings, having gapped up initially but dropping since then.
Markets are trying to dismiss the significance of inflation remaining high. There is a 90% probability of a rate hike according to Fed Watch tools. The speaker believes markets will eventually correct even if they pump after opening, citing Friday timing and high probability of rate hike leading to weekend derisking.
The speaker believes a rate hike is long overdue and that markets will sell off into the rate decision next week. However, there is optimism that Kevin Walsh might not follow through with a rate hike despite the high probability.
If markets consolidate and trade sideways, staying in cash is advised when direction is unclear. The speaker expects markets to sell off into the rate decision regardless of actual reported outcome. Markets can easily begin to sell off leading up to a rate decision regardless of what gets reported.
Overall markets will drop if a rate hike occurs. Gold is rising in response to the data. Memory chip companies have gapped up 2.5%, with Marvell up 2%. Open Door has dropped to lows of $2.80 after previously being called out at $10, with significant losses for those who bought at $6.
Tesla shows a consistent ascending uptrend pattern, approaching previous support around $380 which could act as resistance. Bloom Energy is up 4% due to S&P 500 inclusion. Intel is up 2.3%, MSTR up 2.6%, with BTC attempting to push higher.
Markets are currently in the green with the report coming in as expected. Overall inflation sits at 3.4% with no change. Core inflation has dropped to 2.4%. The speaker advises against taking aggressive positions leading up to the rate decision and recommends patience and calculated trading.
Fed Watch shows 90% probability of a rate hike, though the speaker expresses skepticism about this level of certainty. Probability tools showing 50/50 outcomes are considered more accurate when bullish market factors are present.
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Conspiracy theories about data manipulation are not entertained. Reports are taken at face value with markets reacting accordingly. Reports can be revised later if needed.
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