Market CRASHING? Here Is What You Need To Know!
In a Nutshell
Oil prices above $96 and 10-year yields hitting 4.85% signal that Middle East uncertainty and inflation are forcing the Fed to consider a rate hike next week. Core CPI and PPI reports this week will determine whether the Fed pauses or tightens, and both outcomes are bearish for growth. Markets remain propped by AI stocks while the broader economy—shown by Walmart’s weak guidance—feels the pinch of higher energy costs.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
The NASDAQ market is down 0.31% with uncertainty presenting itself. The US Treasury announced a new $6 billion bond buyback in longer dated debt. Yields spiked following this announcement. The higher the yield, the higher the interest payment that the Federal Reserve pays or the US money pays on money that it borrows. Normally when you see a huge bond buyback, especially for longer dated debt, you do that in return for lower yields, but the opposite occurred.
The exact dollar amount of the bond buyback is relevant whether it was 6 billion or 30 billion. It's about the message that Best net was trying to send. The message is being rejected by the credit markets and we now have the highest 10-year yield in the past 5 years at 4.85%. The bond market is telling Treasury Secretary Best net they do not trust it. They're trading higher and there's more uncertainty.
One hour later, US oil prices are now above $96 a barrel, up 44% since July 2nd. There has been no comment from President Trump and no Iran deal is even being discussed. Today marks the 193rd day of the Iran war. According to Trump, it's not a war unless he needs it to be.
The CPI inflation report is scheduled for Friday. If the CPI inflation comes in hot on Friday, it's hard to see that the Federal Reserve will be able to justify another rate pause. The solution to bond yields, oil prices, and inflation is to pull out of Iran.
The uncertainty is sourced from what is going on in the Middle East. As the Strait of Hormuz and tensions continue to escalate in Iran, oil prices continue to creep up higher. As oil prices continue to creep up higher, inflation will continue to creep up higher.
According to the Fed rate monitor tool, there is a 60.1% probability that in 1 week, 1 hour, and 9 minutes, the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates. This is before tomorrow's PPI data report and Friday's CPI data report. At techbudsolutions.com, there is an economic calendar showing the weekly schedule. Today was the ADP employment change, tomorrow's the PPI report, and then on Friday, it's the CPI data report.
If inflation continues to creep up higher, especially with oil prices being the biggest contributor to our rising rate of inflation, this would be the reason on why the Federal Reserve might have to raise rates, which slows down the economy. That is bearish, not bullish.
The NASDAQ market is doing just fine, nearly trading at all-time highs. When making videos, titles or thumbnails might suggest otherwise, but if you're trading off of titles and thumbnails or making investment decisions based off of that, then you shouldn't be investing or trading at all. Markets are irrational and there is enough uncertainty in the market that if it wasn't for Trump and his constant tweets, markets would be downturning, but he continues to pump the markets.
Overall markets are doing very well with a lot of it being propped up by AI stocks or AI infrastructure stocks. There is a big disconnect between some regular tech company and retail. Walmart is always a great-performing stock long-term, but as of right now, it's recently selling off. Walmart is a great example of how the average American is doing, and if Walmart is slowing down or struggling, that really tells us how the average American is doing in the United States. Their guidance is lower for 2026 going into 2027. The average American is feeling the pressure. The overall stock market is not a representation of how the average American is doing.
The focus for this week is inflation. Inflation reports that get released tomorrow, Thursday, and on Friday are going to aggressively determine what the Federal Reserve is likely to do next week during the FOMC rate decision. All of it will be live streamed for free on this channel.
Coreweave pumped up with no fundamental reason on why it was running up. It is notorious for pumping and dumping. It's a high-risk trade both to go long or to go short. It recently pumped up due to earnings, consolidated, and then sold off back to lows of 80. From overall highs that it formed before to the overall lows, that was a 28% sell-off. It became overbought and markets are likely to de-risk leading up to these major inflation reports. The most speculative stocks can correct the hardest.
When Coreweave ran up to highs of 103, nearly 104, it began to pull back. From the highs to the current lows, it sold off 7 to 8%. For anybody that took that trade, if you feel like it's lacking progress on the downside and you're concerned about it recovering, take profits. This is not a meme stock group. We're all here for the same reason, to make money. If you've made your money, what happens if you give it back versus how much more you can make? What is it worth to you? Maybe the risk is too high, you don't see the continuation to actually happen because Nasdaq is now beginning to recover.
There are signs of consolidation on Core Weave beginning to show signs of a possible support at 96. 96 is not the overall price target - the target was to get closer to 80. There are signs of a support and that it could begin to recover, so half of the short position was covered because of indication of a support. There is still skin in the game, but with the idea that it can begin to recover before it continues to sell off.
This trade alone was with over 200K. It's not something that the beginner trader should be choosing to trade with. It takes money to make money. Options are not traded - only shares are traded. The good and the bad are always discussed. The opportunity was identified and the thought process was explained behind it, not that it had to play out exactly according to plan, but that you understood the why.
Live trading occurs every morning right at market open for 30 minutes to an hour and sessions are always saved. Members that signed up back in 2018 still get to watch live trading. Recent live sessions can be rewatched even before joining. It's one-time payment, lifetime access and can be obtained for $299 off. The second link in the description provides access.
Crypto is not cared for and there is no belief in crypto, but this is a great reminder of what crypto stands for and it's just another pump and dump. Hunter Biden's crypto meme coin laptop crashes 99% in 2 hours after launch. It's another gimmick in a speculative space in a black market. Crypto is really used for black market activities. If crypto or Bitcoin believers were as right as they were passionate, Bitcoin would be used at grocery stores and gas stations and mortgages could be paid with Bitcoin. That would be true adoption, but it's been over 15 years with minimal adoption and a bunch of these pump and dump rug pulls that cheapen and weaken the validity behind cryptocurrency and it being the future.
Bitcoin is still down 40% from all-time highs while overall market still sit nearly at all-time highs. You get to choose the markets that you choose to invest in and trade in. It's not said that you can't make money trading crypto, but it's a much more risky and much more volatile market and those that make the most money right now are the ones that know when to buy and know when to sell. It's super speculative, super volatile and if markets overall do begin to sell off, crypto will crash even harder.
The year should end on a green note.
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