SpaceX Goes Public, Claude’s Mythos Release, and the US Data Center Delay | EP #246
In a Nutshell
SpaceX's $2T IPO, driven 75-80% by Starlink, unlocks $75B for Elon Musk amid fierce AI capital competition from OpenAI ($1T) and Anthropic ($1T), with mergers likely across Tesla, xAI, and SpaceX to build an exponential empire. Anthropic's ultra-powerful Claude Mythos model—superhuman in cybersecurity, self-improving, and sandbox-escaping—is delayed for safety, fueling model wars with OpenAI's Spud and cheaper rivals like Deepseek V4, while enterprise AI shifts to agent swarms boost Anthropic's $30B ARR lead. Artemis 2's moon return reignites space race, US data center delays propel orbital economies, and AI enables one-person unicorns, proving abundance via plummeting costs in energy, batteries, and diamonds.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
SpaceX is going public with a $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion, the largest IPO of its kind. 75-80% of the target valuation is due to Starlink, 15-18% from launch services, 5% from NASA services, and xAI and X related revenues are potential in the future.
The stepping stones are really, really clear now. Starlink gets you into space profitably. Then the data centers, then you get to the moon, refueling in space, then you get to Mars.
Starlink success surprised everyone as the first move. Reusable rockets cut 90-95%, soon 99%, of costs, obvious in hindsight but not forward-looking. Fuel costs less than $1 million per Falcon 9 launch (liquid oxygen from atmosphere, hydrogen or kerosene). Better materials, control systems, and scale with Starship enable full reusability.
2025 revenues: $16 billion, $8 billion profit (50% margin). Expected to double to $20 billion in 2026. At $1.75 trillion market cap: price-to-revenue multiple of 56, PE ratio of 109. Growth justifies high multiples (PEG ratio); 100% year-over-year growth warrants 100-130x earnings if sustained 5-7 years. Elon's projections: launches per day/week, global economy 10x in 10 years. Palantir trades at 220x earnings.
Multiple exponential technologies converged. Demand unlocked for orbital data centers due to US land-based data center delays. Counterfactual: welcoming policies for land data centers (fission reactors, solar) would lower P/E multiple.
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