Stock Market Crashing After Hours | Here's What's Coming
In a Nutshell
Markets fell after hours as semiconductors led declines, driven by Iran's missile strikes on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and Samsung's disappointing Q2 guidance that signaled HBM demand won't fully offset broader memory weakness. Trump’s public endorsement of Dell is flagged as a conflict of interest and potential bull trap, while Michael Bur dismisses Trump’s market insight. The speaker closed all day trades with profits and now seeks pullbacks in names like Micron for better entry points.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
NASDAQ closed at 722 and is trading at 718 in after-hours, down over half a percent with consistent lower highs and lower lows. Semiconductor stocks are selling off the hardest. The speaker made over $3,000 on MU during the day session and $2,600 on MSTR due to after-hours volatility featuring a run-up followed by a gap down. All positions were closed before the end of the day with no overnight holdings.
Iran's IRGC fired at least two missiles at multiple commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Two commercial ships were hit with significant damage; one ship is on fire. A US-backed southern cordier was located off the coast of Oman. This marks the third such incident involving the South Korean market context.
Over $170 billion USD has been wiped from the South Korean stock market as the KOSPI fell 4%. Samsung reported Q2 earnings guidance. While Samsung's earnings results were strong, investors became concerned because AI companies, semiconductors, and memory chip companies are trading at perfection levels. Any sign of sub-perfection triggers market reaction.
AI memory demand driven by HBM remains present. However, signals emerged that HBM alone could not sufficiently prop up Samsung's overall revenue and guidance. The market interpreted this as HBM not yet being able to substitute for a full cycle recovery in the rest of the memory business. Demand exists but fell short of elevated expectations, resulting in selling pressure.
Michael Bur responded to Trump calling out short sellers, stating that Trump could never understand or work through Bur's essays yet can make money from his positions and for his associates better than anyone. Bur affirmed there is no question that he understands markets and financial markets to a degree Trump would never reach. Trump holds a position of power and does not need to possess that level of understanding.
Trump sent a message during a live stream encouraging everyone to buy Dell. The speaker views this as a complete conflict of interest and a bull trap. Dell stock rose 8% at one point before giving back gains. From highs of 429, buyers lost 5% to 4% depending on entry points. The speaker notes this pattern repeats and questions how blind supporters can ignore direct conflicts of interest and abuse of power when the president promotes publicly traded companies in which he is personally invested.
Dell has shown strong signs of resistance with limited progress. Many semiconductor stocks display signs of lack of progress. The speaker would like to see a retracement on semiconductor stocks to purchase at better valuations for long-term investment, not because of a belief that a bubble needs to pop. Specific companies mentioned include Micron, which the speaker likes fundamentally and technically and would consider adding on a pullback. Intel is explicitly not of interest.
Markets are dropping after hours due to two factors: uncertainty from the Iran attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Samsung's worse-than-expected guidance relative to elevated market expectations in the semiconductor and memory chip sector.
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