Stock Market Live: OpenAI Meltdown Triggers Selloff
In a Nutshell
NASDAQ drops 1.3-1.34% amid OpenAI missing user/revenue targets, sparking AI stock selloff (Nvidia -3%, AMD -4.4%, Oklo -7-8%) after a 20% rally in 20 days, signaling overvaluation and uncertainty in massive AI investments. Markets are overbought on 4-hour charts, influenced by Trump's manipulative tweets on Iran/oil (pushing prices toward $100/barrel and inflation risks), with FOMC expected to pause rates (98.9% odds) tomorrow alongside big tech earnings. Speaker closed small short positions for $2,500 profit, avoiding overnight holds due to irrational sentiment, false war-end hype, and upcoming catalysts that could spark a buy-up if earnings exceed expectations.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
NASDAQ market trading lower due to uncertainty with OpenAI. Tomorrow is FOMC rate decision and press conference; live streaming it for free—drop thumbs up and subscribe.
NASDAQ down 1.34%. QQQ showing early support. Played safe with small position size after tiring of markets selling off then recovering quickly on Friday and yesterday, ending flat. Sized down when testing pre-market highs, made $2,500, closed trade.
Markets overbought on 4-hour timeframe; doesn't make sense to go long or carry short overnight with irrational markets, upcoming big tech earnings starting tomorrow, FOMC, and Trump's tweets.
President Trump tweets Iran in state of collapse, wants Strait of Hormuz opened soon. Sheds light on potential peace deal, but how many times (six, seven, eight weeks?) celebrating end of Iran war without it ending? Pushes markets higher illogically.
Anytime oil breaks above $100/barrel, Trump tweets to manipulate market. One minute before open, sent tweet when markets lower—cares about oil due to consumer impact on inflation; higher inflation means Fed less likely to cut rates.
Tomorrow: 98.9% probability Fed pauses; 1.1% expectation for rate cut. Trump wants cuts but won't get if inflation rises; oil contributes.
S&P slips, NASDAQ slides over 1% as OpenAI growth concerns weigh on AI stocks. Pre-market aggressive selloff; Trump tweet caused short rally then back down, consolidating around 655 for QQQ.
OpenAI misses targets; market pricing in no one else needs compute. Semis up 45% YTD—best performing. Disappointment triggers sharp pullback amid projection, overvaluation, hype.
OpenAI sparked rallies last year with partnerships: Nvidia (mutual investments), Amazon, Meta, Tesla—memes, new all-time highs.
Not just OpenAI leading compute, but it drove last year's rallies. Missing new users and revenue targets signals concern. Companies projecting/overinvesting $500 billion+ into AI this year—disappointment leads to pullback/correction.
This is minor: 1.3% NASDAQ drop after 20% up in 20 days. AMD down 4.4%/4%, but from $200 to $352 in 30 days (80% ROI). Intel up 360% in year despite losing $1 billion/year. Oklo down 7-8%, Nvidia down 3% ($5 trillion cap), SanDisk down 7%.
NASDAQ slight correction makes sense. Can get bought up tomorrow with FOMC, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet earnings. If they exceed expectations, markets earn rally.
Discussed in live trading with LPP team (second link in description): want earned rallies. Slight correction sensible amid AI sector uncertainty.
Mag 7 earnings tomorrow—if exceed, earn highs. Dislike Trump tweets one minute before open as market manipulation. Past two weeks: best recoveries on false war-end speculation (10 times), but not true.
Fundamentals: weakening labor market (weakest in years), rising inflation, AI companies not delivering (red flags).
US average gas price $4.8/gallon, highest since August 2022 post-pandemic.
Closed all shorts; no reason to hold overnight with unknowns tomorrow and Trump tweets. Two things correct: markets overbought on false news/manipulation, but bullish sentiment makes short overnight unsafe.
Intraday: took opportunity, closed, move on. Wait for settlement, favorable sentiment for shorts when price action, direction, sentiment align. Markets stay irrational longer than solvent.
Important to understand why pulling back: OpenAI disappointment headline raises uncertainty, consider downside risk. Live stream FOMC/earnings tomorrow; thumbs up, subscribe. Join live trading (second link). End year green.
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