The Crypto Market Is Broken (Here's Why)
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Over the last 41 days, crypto has erased $1.1 trillion in market cap, that's $27 billion per day. Crypto market cap is now 10% below where it was during the record-breaking $19 billion liquidation event on October 10th. Nothing fundamentally has happened. Days ago, President Trump said America being number one in crypto is a top national priority.
I only care about one thing. Will crypto be will we be number one in crypto? Crypto has turned out and in that sense I've been right. Crypto's turned out to be a massive industry if you want to call it that. And I'm very proud to say that we are far and away ahead of China and everybody else.
Bitcoin is down 25% in a month. Houses are $8 trillion.
This decline isn't about bad news, exchange failures, bad actors, or macro factors. It's structural and mechanical. Started in mid to late October with institutional outflows. Weekly crypto asset flows chart (source: Bloomberg Coin Shares, data as of November 8, 2025) shows huge outflows in week 34, and weeks 44 and 45, including a $1.2-2 billion outflow in the first week of November.
Crypto has reckless leverage: 20x, 25x, 50x, 100x. At 100x, a 1-2% move wipes out positions completely. Institutional outflows plus overlevered traders create a domino effect of forced selling. Daily liquidations of $500 million are normal. Three days with over $1 billion in liquidations in the last 16 days. Total liquidations chart shows record $20 billion in early October. Thin volume creates violent price swings in both directions.
24-hour liquidations: Bitcoin at roughly $94,000 per coin, Ethereum, Solana (pumped by FTX), XRP, hype coins. Sentiment collapsed: crypto fear and greed index hit 10 (scale 0-100, extreme fear).
Bitcoin is still up 25% from April bottom, but leverage amplifies every move, making it feel like a crisis.
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Bitcoin vs gold since October 10th liquidation: for over a year they moved together as safe haven assets, but since early October, gold outperformed Bitcoin by 25 percentage points. Ethereum down 8.5% on the year, down 35% since October 6th—a full-blown bear market. Happening while other risk assets like tech stocks rally.
Crypto is in a structural bear market, not fundamental. Fundamentals improved. Market structure issues: leverage, liquidations, thin trading volume (dollar amount of buys/sells), institutional exits. Now involves ETFs, BlackRock, VanEck—big money.
Markets with growing pains iron out wrinkles; bottom is near. Believer in macro backdrop, global M2 money supply at record $137 trillion. Japan preparing $110 billion stimulus package. US about to send $2,000 tariff dividends. This is liquidity fuel. Crypto responds strongly to liquidity waves (post-2008 QE, 2020 COVID printing).
Downturn is growing pain, not funeral. Four-year cycle possibly ending; tweets from 2020 predicted top in October 2025, hit October 6th. Meme showed prediction of top on October 6th, which was exact.
Don't sell your Bitcoin.
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