TOP 5 STOCKS TO WATCH THIS WEEK JULY 2026
In a Nutshell
Markets are approaching overbought levels at all-time highs while semiconductor and AI stocks show red flags with repeated EMA tests, signaling caution against leveraged positions. Stocks like SoFi, Netflix, Adobe, and Oracle display weak price action with lower highs and lower lows, making them watch-list candidates rather than buys until confirmation appears. The strategy emphasizes holding cash for dip opportunities rather than chasing gap-ups, with Meta highlighted as a potential beneficiary when speculative money rotates back into value stocks.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Happy Sunday. It's Ricky with TechBud Solutions on July 5th at 5:14. The Mexico and England game is delayed. The big question from last week was Micron and semiconductor stocks taking a significant technical beating. While oversold technically, the sharp retracement created questions about whether this week presented a good dip-buy opportunity, especially with news of Michael Burry shorting them and other institutions discussing short positions on semiconductor and memory chip stocks.
Markets gapped up without clear reasons. The speaker notes that markets touched the same support last week, rallied to highs of 740, and have been doing this for the past two to three weeks before getting rejected back to 705. The reason for sharing this is to consider oversold and overbought levels on larger time frames. As markets approach overbought levels, caution is warranted with going long. The previous resistance zone from the past few weeks should be kept in mind.
The gap up happened on Thursday, which was unfortunate because many people didn't want to hold over the 3-day weekend. The speaker notes that markets didn't receive much negative news, which was unusual compared to previous weekends when Trump was notorious for closing the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend or attacking, only for markets to open normally on Monday. This created uncertainty about whether to aggressively buy the dip. Now that markets are bouncing off support and trying to make their way back to 740, many semiconductor stocks are up an incredible amount.
The speaker made numerous videos about Michael Burry's short position and thesis, but also discussed going long due to the low P ratio still being a good deal. However, the price is expensive in the short term, having experienced great momentum and price action in a very short period of time, up over 200% in the past 6 months. The question is whether it's due for a correction.
The speaker doesn't like how markets gap up randomly for no reason. Micron is up 7% and SanDisk is up 10%, representing such an opportunity that the speaker hates it happened on Thursday because if markets were open on Friday, it would have made sense to buy the dip and ride the recovery. The gap up happens when markets are closed, and as soon as they open, stocks are up 10%. This is where FOMO buying kicks in, and it might creep up a little bit higher then sell right back off. Caution is advised at these elevated levels.
The key question to ask is whether continuous price action on the upside is being seen or if this is some FOMO buying that's kicking in and whether it's already overbought. The speaker is beginning to ask whether the move has already been missed and whether to proceed with caution.
SoFi just crept up a little bit. The speaker questions what makes this stock special right now. The viewer mentions a cup and handle pattern on larger time frames. The speaker notes that the NASDAQ market is trading nearly at all-time highs, while SoFi is down a significant amount since the peak of 2025. While SoFi was one of the best performing stocks for 2025, attention has shifted elsewhere similar to PLTR and other companies. It doesn't look like money is being poured into these companies anymore, and they're kind of staying stagnant.
SoFi recovered from $15 to $20, which is nothing to be unhappy about, but it's stuck here and not showing signs of progress beyond the $20 resistance. The speaker doesn't see why there would be a reason to buy when price action does not support it. SoFi is down 50% from its highs and not showing any signs of relief. The speaker agrees with shorting SoFi on the day but notes that shorting is risky because it's consolidating between $20 and $15, making it relatively tight.
Netflix is brought up because of its price. The speaker notes that Netflix shares have fallen sharply from 52-week highs to near 52-week lows. Fundamentally, it looks good with 16% upside, P ratio down to 24.4x, revenue going up, and net income going up. The bear case includes high profitable bids that were lost out on, a bunch of price cuts, moderate levels of debt with no dividends, and regulatory risk including a DOJ antitrust investigation.
The speaker notes this looks like a healthy retracement. When stocks get incredibly greedy and overbought, it's interesting to see which companies will be down 50% a year or two from now. Netflix has made nearly a 50% retracement so far and is testing old resistance ranges that are now new support levels. Price action does not support a recovery yet, with lower highs and lower lows forming.
On the 4-hour time frame, every time Netflix rips up to the moving average recently, it's been getting rejected. Technically speaking, it's closer to resistance than support, making it less sensible to buy now until it begins to do something it hasn't before. The speaker would set an alert rather than buy, saying Netflix would be more of a watch than a buy.
The speaker doesn't feel like QQQ needs an analysis. On the 4-hour time frame and day chart, the NASDAQ is incredibly bullish but hanging on by a hair above the EMA. If it begins to break below that EMA, which it's tested three times in two weeks, it may indicate momentum is beginning to slow down. Red flags are beginning to present themselves with semiconductor and AI chip stocks.
The key message is not to be in fear but to recognize that at elevated levels, don't be leveraged or have too much exposure. When retracements happen, having cash on the sidelines allows taking advantage of opportunities when they present themselves. The speaker emphasizes never being afraid to go long, just don't over-leverage and have cash available on the sides.
Meta has been struggling but had a nice pop off due to announcing a new sector of business it's pursuing. The speaker notes these are short-lived positive catalysts where markets get excited, factor it in, and then the excitement fades. Meta, like Microsoft, hasn't been doing well and isn't at all-time highs like the NASDAQ or semiconductor stocks.
The speaker believes Meta will be one of the beneficiaries when markets begin to drop and money gets pulled out of speculative semis and poured back into more traditional, well-run businesses. Meta is viewed as a good long-term investment with a 21 P ratio, which is pretty low compared to SNDK at 57. The speaker welcomes more pain to get a really good deal and has been buying a few thousand dollars for their son and daughter during sell-offs.
Adobe is not at the top of the speaker's list because it got way too pumped. Adobe ran up to highs in 2024 at the end of 2024/start of 2025 and has been selling off ever since. The speaker notes that Adobe has 63% upside with an incredibly low P ratio, revenue up, and net income up. The company makes $7 billion in net income, twice as much as Tesla, but price action is terrible with market cap now below 90 billion and lower highs and lower lows.
Wall Street just does not like Adobe, and it has little upswings that give hope but then gives it all back. The speaker would add it to their oversold watch list but doesn't have conviction to buy now due to the strong descending pattern that's been selling off since 2024. The speaker doesn't have to be early to a rally to make money and would set alerts and wait for confirmation rather than trying to predict the bottom.
Robinhood's price action will have a lot to do with Bitcoin's performance due to trading activity. Robinhood has been turning things around, actually much better than Coinbase. Coinbase has been getting hit a lot harder despite being more focused on crypto. The speaker sees Coinbase as a fair deal, but the biggest question is whether Bitcoin and crypto will begin to turn around.
The speaker thinks Robinhood could return back to the 70s as soon as trading activity begins to fade. Robinhood began to really uptick especially when 24/5 trading became available and they lowered the PDT rule. Old supports are now acting as new resistance, and the question is whether it can sustain itself at these elevated levels.
Risk to reward based on current levels doesn't seem favorable to go long any longer. The speaker would wait until it gets closer to the moving average to see if a good deal can be gotten on the upswing. As long as the NASDAQ market stays elevated, Robinhood is doing a very good job working at these elevated levels, but as soon as NASDAQ begins to fall, Robinhood will likely go back to retest the 70s.
Oracle is not a stock the speaker is a big fan of. It took digging to understand why, but Oracle is very over-leveraged and very invested in the AI space but not in a very good position. The stock was doing incredibly well in 2025, going from lows of $100 to highs of $300.
Oracle has rallied from lows of $100 to highs of $300, representing an impressive move. The stock is currently testing an old support range where it previously bounced. From $135 to highs of $250 within this move represents significant upside potential. However, the V-shape recovery occurred over a period of time rather than overnight. Confirmation of a reversal is required before entering positions.
At current levels around $138, Oracle appears cheap, but there's risk it could break below $100. A key concern is the disconnect between Oracle trading at 52-week lows while markets are at all-time highs. If markets begin to correct from overbought levels, Oracle would likely drop even harder.
Markets at all-time highs while Oracle trades at 52-week lows creates a concerning disconnect. The expectation is that if markets correct, Oracle would fall even more significantly given its current weakness.
Nike had an initial drop after reporting earnings, despite beating estimates, the stock sold off approximately 10%. The stock performed a V-shape recovery the following day and is now retesting previous resistance around $45. Key levels to watch include whether it holds this resistance or breaks support, potentially returning to lows of $40 or even the $30s.
Micron remains a significant focus, appearing oversold enough that if markets rally, there's potential to reach $120 or $130. The gap up overnight creates concern about missing part of the move.
The strategy emphasizes working with the market rather than against it. When uncertainty exists or markets feel choppy, position size should reflect that uncertainty. The key is knowing when to go all in versus when to be careful, focusing on position size and exposure management rather than fear.
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The session concludes with anticipation for the Mexico versus England match and excitement for the upcoming market open live trading session, with the goal of ending the year on a green note.
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