Trump's Iran Deal Just Hit a Major Problem
In a Nutshell
Trump's Iran deal faces hurdles amid deescalation signals, including a potential one-month ceasefire, high-level talks, and Iran's nuclear pledge, boosting markets (NASDAQ recovered to prior close, oversold conditions prompted shift to long TQQQ for $1.8K+ gains) while oil fluctuates and scrutiny hits $480M pre-announcement trades. Microsoft dropped 2.6% to attractive valuations near year-ago lows (fair value $591, 23x earnings), Circle shed 20% after spiking to $136, gold/silver surged, and oil ETFs like UCO/SCO offer directional plays based on escalation odds. Live trading via LPP emphasizes position sizing on leveraged ETFs like TQQQ/SQQQ amid deescalation favoring upside.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
NASDAQ ended in the red down 0.68%, but up over 1% today, gaining back all it lost, back to yesterday's close around 590 before the sell-off. On larger timeframe, NASDAQ is incredibly oversold. In live trading session with LPP team, shifted from shorting to going long due to oversold conditions. Reward greater on upside than downside. Went long on TQQQ with light position, not fully certain.
US and Trump administration appear willing to deescalate with Iran. Stock market cares about ceasefire, oil prices dropping to avoid higher inflation, and less uncertainty for bond market retracement.
US negotiating one-month ceasefire with Iran for peace talks per Israel media; no official confirmation. US-Iran may hold high-level talks as soon as Thursday.
$480 million oil trades made minutes before Trump's key Iran announcement draw scrutiny; calls for investigation.
Iran agrees never to have nuclear weapons again.
Iran prefers negotiating with JD Vance over Jared Kushner or Wickoff; all over the news.
Markets would react positively to deescalation. TQQQ (triple leverage ETF, up when NASDAQ up) pushing higher overnight; not for beginners due to leverage.
First time in past 4-5 weeks Trump administration feels pressure for ceasefire. Did not take position on MSTZ (inverse ETF) or MSTR. Took profits on SQQQ (inverse QQQ ETF) in pre-market after lack of downside progress: retested, rejected multiple times, made $610 on SQQQ. On TQQQ, made little over $1,800 to 2K today, light position.
Microsoft down 2.6%. On larger timeframe, looks like killer deal: fair value at $591 per Investing Pro, trading at 23x earnings, low premium. Sharp retracement approaching lows from exactly one year ago. Not every tech stock like this; Tesla and Nvidia nowhere near their year-ago lows. Microsoft catching attention, but just because cheap doesn't mean it can't get cheaper; no reversal confirmation, set alerts, watch position size.
Circle (stablecoin issuer) ran to highs of $136, then lost 20% (1/5 of value) in one day. High risk, high reward comes at price; manage position size.
As markets go up with certainty for deescalation, tech up. Gold up 3.8%, silver up 6%. Oil: UCO up 6% after hours then down 6% extended hours.
If uncertainty, oil up/markets down. If deescalation certainty, oil down/markets up. If think Iran worsens, buy UCO dip. If deescalates, consider SCO (inverse leveraged ETF for oil, up when oil down); higher risk due to leverage.
Concepts from LPP live trading sessions. Trade live every morning, second link in description is discount for one-time payment lifetime access.
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