Urgent: Iran-US Talks Delayed to 2029, Market Impact
In a Nutshell
Iran has officially delayed any US negotiations until after Trump's term ends in 2029, reversing last week's false peace deal optimism and sending oil prices higher ahead of Wednesday's CPI report. Markets remain near all-time highs but are overbought and vulnerable to resistance levels, with the speaker maintaining short positions on Micron while warning against overleveraged exposure. The yen's continued weakness despite $100B in US-Japan intervention threatens Treasury yields and broader market stability.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Iran has stated they will wait until Trump's term ends in 2029 before starting negotiations with the US. Markets celebrated last week based on a fabricated peace deal that was never signed. The supposed agreement was expected on Wednesday, then Thursday, then by end of week, but no deal materialized. Iran has confirmed no peace deal exists and rules out future negotiations with the Trump administration until his term ends.
Iran's strategy involves denial, ambiguity, and strategic patience, stating the current process was not based on peace. Oil prices began rising immediately after this confirmation, reversing the drop that occurred when Trump announced the peace deal.
Oil is the biggest contributor to rising inflation. The CPI data report will be released Wednesday, August 12th, one hour before markets open. The speaker plans to livestream the release.
Trump recently stated he would work out a deal if Iran opens up the Strait of Hormuz. Even when news is confirmed false, markets are not selling off significantly. When Trump hints at a peace deal, markets push to new highs. When he confirms no deal exists, markets correct half a percent.
Micron gapped up and became overbought quickly. The speaker took an active short position, added to it during the correction, then took profits as it approached the moving average, which was a previous resistance range that could act as new support. The day is up approximately $4,000, with another short position opened.
The Japanese yen has fallen back past 158 yen per dollar despite an estimated $100 billion US-Japan intervention. The US intervened not just last week but also shortly after. The US is adamant about helping Japan stabilize its dollar because if the yen continues falling, Japan will need to liquidate US Treasuries as one of the largest foreign holders.
If Japan floods the US Treasury market, yields go higher, pulling money from stocks into yields, increasing US interest payments. The speaker notes this is the least concern compared to a potential carry trade collapse like August 2024.
QQQ and SPY are near all-time highs. The market is overbought but not cheap. Markets can push higher, and Trump has the ability to manipulate markets with tweets. Based on previous resistance levels, markets are closer to resistance than support. The advice is to be cautious of exposure at current levels, not overleveraged, but not necessarily scared to be invested.
Rocket Lab reports earnings today after market close. Tomorrow features Super Micro and CoreWeave reporting after close. Nibbius reports before market open Wednesday. The CPI data report is the main focus for Wednesday.
When markets show consolidation signs, staying cash is acceptable if direction and confirmation aren't favorable. Don't be overleveraged. The Webull promotion offers 12 free fractional shares (Nvidia, Apple, SpaceX, Tesla) with a $100 deposit, ranging from $36 to $3,600 value. The sale runs until midnight tonight.
Live trading occurs every morning at market open.
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