WARNING: ARE MARKETS ABOUT TO DROP AGAIN?!
In a Nutshell
Markets rallied sharply after Iran halted attacks and Trump pushed a ceasefire deal, with semis like NVDA, MU, and MSTR leading gains while MAG7 lagged. Bitcoin and MSTR recovered together, but the speaker warns MSTR’s dilution and leverage make direct BTC or IBIT exposure preferable. Outlook hinges on whether the Iran deal holds or fresh Middle East risk triggers another selloff; manage size and lock profits rather than chase.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Markets are rallying today with the NASDAQ up over 2% after Iran announced it is halting military operations against Israel. President Trump stated he is working on a final deal with Iran. Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate ceasefire according to Trump. Final negotiations on peace are proceeding subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way, per Trump's Truth Social post.
Since the first hour and a half since the market opened, new highs have not been made. The market sold off 4% on Friday, one of the biggest point selloffs seen in the NASDAQ, followed by this aggressive recovery.
Semiconductor stocks are performing strongly. Marvel Technology is up 13% and was up over 14% during the session. Micron Technology posted 10% gains. SanDisk is up 5%, Nvidia is up 2%, and Intel is up 13%. These companies were discussed on Saturday prior to the recovery.
MAG7 companies are not performing as well today, with Meta, Google, and Amazon all in the red. This suggests money is being pulled out of MAG7 stocks and poured into more speculative stocks, potentially for short periods before profit-taking returns to the MAG7 companies.
Oscar is one of the top performers today, up 11%. Tesla is up 5.5% on the day. The SpaceX IPO is scheduled for Friday.
MSTR showed an impressive recovery from lows of 115 to closing around 120, reaching highs of nearly 129. Signs of resistance are now appearing.
BTC began showing signs of recovery. MSTR pushed higher because BTC is moving up with the market. Michael Saylor sold $180 million worth of MSTR to buy $100 million worth of BTC and pay dividends, which was disclosed today. MSTR investors are viewing this as a win.
The speaker does not believe in Bitcoin but supports the right to own it. The argument is that buying a company that dilutes shareholders when one can buy actual Bitcoin or a Bitcoin ETF like IBIT provides one-for-one exposure without leverage. Investing in MicroStrategy means giving Michael Saylor the ability to borrow against shares to dilute shareholders in order to buy Bitcoin, or potentially sell Bitcoin if it breaks below $50,000 per coin.
If BTC begins to drop, preparation involves considering whether to take a short on Bitcoin or on MicroStrategy. The same applies to the NASDAQ market: whether the current rally is short-lived or the beginning of a recovery depends on individual outlook.
Factors to consider include whether more attacks in the Middle East will inject uncertainty causing markets to drop, or whether Trump will deliver on the final deal with Iran and Israel. If believing the deal will hold, going long makes sense; if not, being mindful of exposure and position size is advised.
Both bull and bear cases are covered in content. While shorting is discussed, it is not for everyone. On Saturday, AI companies that sold off aggressively were highlighted, and many of those became top performers today. If markets begin to drop tomorrow, those same stocks could become top losers.
When in doubt, cashing out and locking in profits is recommended. It is not your money until profits are actually locked in. Being mindful of position size when concerned is advised. All concepts discussed are covered within LPP 3.0, which also provides access to daily live sessions and a risk calculator for planning trades.
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