WARNING: THIS IS WHY MARKETS ARE CRASHING TODAY!
In a Nutshell
Markets are selling off over $300B with no major news, likely due to profit-taking ahead of tomorrow's FOMC rate decision where a pause is 99% certain. Oil is crashing on Trump's announcement that a peace deal would let Iran sell oil immediately, potentially driving prices even lower if signed Friday. The speaker warns against buying the oil dip due to high risk and stresses using proper risk management with stop losses and favorable risk-to-reward ratios on all trades.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
24 hours from the moment of filming, there will be an FOMC rate decision with the new Fed chair carrying a press conference for the first time. SP SpaceX opened and hit highs of 230 during overnight hours but has since been consolidating with limited progress shown.
Over $300 billion has been wiped from the market early in the session, with the figure likely higher now. The NASDAQ is down 1.44%. There is no major news driving the move. The speaker questions whether this represents profit-taking or derisking ahead of the FOMC decision. There is a 99.1% probability the Federal Reserve will pause rates, making a surprise unlikely.
Trump stated in today's speech that the deal would allow Iran to sell oil and fuel immediately in major concessions. This appears designed to spark a sell-off in oil prices, which began dipping hard following the announcement. Current oil price levels represent one of the lowest points since April 2025.
Oil is approaching previous oversold levels. If the deal is signed on Friday when markets are closed and no intervening events occur, oil prices are likely to drop even further. However, if this represents empty promises about the deal being signed and oil being sold, this would cause oil prices to drop as observed.
Oil is the biggest contributor to the current rate of inflation and why energy represents such a large component of the inflation rate.
If the peace deal is not signed, oil could present a dip buying opportunity, though this carries significant risk. The speaker has no intention of buying the dip due to excessive risk. The situation appears different this time around, but uncertainty remains after 9 to 10 weeks of deal or no deal developments.
Previous support range for UCO, which closely follows oil, sits around $35 to $36 per share.
The NASDAQ declined 1.46% to 1.5% with no major news driving the move. The speaker expresses concern that the selling may have an undisclosed reason, potentially involving Trump's insiders selling ahead of news announcements. The hope is that this represents market derisking ahead of the FOMC rate decision rather than informed selling.
The FOMC rate decision occurs at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time, which is 2 hours before markets close. Following the rate decision, a press conference takes place. The speaker plans to live stream the event starting approximately 10 minutes before 2:00 p.m. Eastern time. The live stream will run 45 minutes to an hour and will be free on the YouTube channel.
The Federal Reserve will determine whether to continue pausing rates, possibly cut interest rates, or whether rate hikes remain on the table for 2026.
Big Mike achieved over $40,000 on an Intel short position. This was an independently identified trade, not a copied recommendation. Ryan made over $6,000 on swing trades across two stocks, totaling $6,400.
Shorting carries greater risk. Markets are irrational and always seek reasons to recover. The current move represents a pullback rather than a full correction. On the 5-minute timeframe, caution is warranted. Technical analysis shows signs of support. If recovery occurs ahead of the FOMC decision, markets could retest previous highs of 746 for QQQ and previous all-time highs of 748.
The speaker would prefer markets to drop further. The broader picture shows testing of previous resistance ranges with decent pullback potential. The peace deal signing could push markets higher if completed.
SpaceX represents a speculative asset with significant attention around the $2.7 trillion valuation and Elon Musk's gains. When investing in speculative assets, use only money actually possessed and avoid leverage. Consider both best case and worst case scenarios.
A free tool is available via the second link in the description on the learn plan profit homepage. The custom calculator allows users to input entry price, stop loss, and price target along with share quantity to determine risk-to-reward ratios.
Example: Buying SpaceX at 210 with stop loss at 200 and price target at 250 using 10 shares produces a 4:1 ratio, potentially making $400 while risking $100. A stop loss at 180 would produce only a 1.33:1 ratio, which is less favorable and potentially unprofitable long-term with poor win rates.
The tool helps determine required risk-to-reward ratios based on win rates to achieve profitability. The platform offers a one-time payment for lifetime access with a $300 discount available. Members who joined in 2018 still maintain access from their single payment.
The speaker will be live streaming tomorrow at market open for live sessions and encourages ending the year on a green note.
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