WARNING: U.S. military officially began blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In a Nutshell
US military has begun blockading the Strait of Hormuz amid a ceasefire, sparking initial NASDAQ plunge to 600 support before sharp recovery; markets could rally higher without Iranian attacks or tanker disruptions, but escalation risks oil spikes, inflation, and drops. Tuesday's PPI report looms critical—expect core 3.9-4.2%, overall 3.4-4.6%—potentially signaling hotter inflation than recent 3.3% CPI, delaying Fed rate cuts or prompting hikes amid weak labor and high housing costs. Stay alert for attacks vs. de-escalation to decide: buy dip, go long, cash, or short.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
The US blockade has officially started. NASDAQ gapped down to lows of around 600 in overnight hours opening at 5:00 p.m. Arizona time on Sunday, found support at 6:04, and made a sharp recovery. Announced to LPP team to take profits to play it safe, as patterns over past six to seven weeks show markets often recover into the green by Monday open or close. This recovery coincided with the US military officially beginning its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
If no further attacks occur and oil tankers pass through, that's a win, giving markets reason to push higher. Since ceasefire announcement, markets trade higher despite Trump stating: > if any of these ships come anywhere close to our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated using the same system to kill that we use against drug dealers on boats at sea.
This was said to Iran about 20-30 minutes after blockade start. Markets can justify recovery if blockade succeeds without attacks. If Iran escalates with attacks, ceasefire ends, no de-escalation, markets fall.
Consistent higher highs and higher lows, regardless of economy's state. Markets are irrational, get ahead of themselves, crash hard and quickly due to prolonged effects. NASDAQ trading well, no breakout pattern yet, proper alerts set. Markets have reason to recover.
Sign in to read the full notes
Get access to AI-generated notes, topic timestamps, and more.