WATCH THIS BEFORE TESLA & META REPORT EARNINGS TODAY!
In a Nutshell
Meta and Tesla report earnings today with Meta expected to post $6.58 EPS on $63.34B revenue and Tesla $0.45 EPS on $27.92B revenue; Meta risks a sell-off from higher-than-expected AI capex while Tesla trades at a 399 P/E with 34% downside risk from weakening car demand. The speaker closed most intraday trades, including small shorts in Tesla and MSTR, and warns against holding positions through earnings due to unpredictable reactions. CoreWeave and NBIS are too oversold to short, and the advice is to reduce exposure, maintain strict risk-reward ratios, and wait for post-earnings clarity before re-entering.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
SpaceX was up over 12% during the trading session. The speaker believes SpaceX is not a good deal at current levels and wouldn't be surprised if it trades below $140 per share in a few weeks. The speaker explicitly states they do not care to short it despite the valuation concerns.
Meta and Tesla are reporting earnings after the markets close. IBM is also reporting earnings. The speaker requested the video reach 500 likes to go live for earnings coverage.
The speaker traded Micron during the morning session and walked away with $1,400. They bought the dip as it recovered but noticed a discrepancy between the NASDAQ market and its full recovery, indicating memory chip stocks appear weaker. The speaker was up about $1,000 on MSTR after opening a small short position of approximately $22,000, losing about $270 on that position. A small short position was taken on Tesla for an overbought reversal at $500 and closed when progress wasn't seen. A position on Meta was down approximately $680.
NBIS and CoreWeave remain incredibly weak. The speaker does not care to short them at current oversold levels because the risk-to-reward ratio isn't worth it. The speaker doesn't believe in these companies but acknowledges they offer nearly 50% upside potential if they recover. The advice is to be careful with exposure early and avoid getting shaken out by overleveraging.
Meta has expected EPS of $6.58 per share and revenue of $63.34 billion. The big concern is whether Meta will overspend in AI, and a larger than expected capex could spook investors. The speaker notes that Meta missed on EPS in the last two earnings reports due to overspending on capex, and markets reacted negatively both times. The historical pattern shows earnings reactions alternating between green and red. The speaker believes earnings periods are incredibly risky for trading and recommends closing trades before earnings, waiting for market reaction, then re-entering if appropriate opportunities appear. The speaker is invested in Meta long-term but notes their average price is significantly lower than the current $700 level.
The speaker owns a Cybertruck and Model X. Based on fair value analysis, Tesla has 34% downside potential with a 399 P/E ratio. The company produces $100 billion in revenue with $3.8 billion in net income. Tesla is described as the most overvalued Magnificent 7 company due to the disconnect between its worth and actual earnings, attributed to the "Elon effect." Car demand appears to be getting weaker. Tesla earnings expectations are 45 cents per share with revenue of $27.92 billion. The speaker notes that Tesla has been making lower lows and lower highs with its EPS as guidance has continued to decline. Markets have historically been lenient with Tesla compared to other companies. Tesla was up 3.1% at the time of recording.
The NASDAQ market was relatively flat, touching the same resistance and support ranges. The speaker advises that as market close approaches, markets may begin to derisk and sell off. Key recommendations include having a plan with aligned risk-to-reward ratios matching personal golden ratios, watching exposure levels, staying patient and calculated, and avoiding overleveraging or overexposure that leads to being shaken out. The speaker emphasizes wanting viewers to win through earned success rather than luck, and encourages ending the year on a green note.
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