We're already too late
In a Nutshell
Wage labor is collapsing due to automation, triggering a deflationary death spiral as consumer spending (70% of GDP) and payroll taxes (80-85% of federal revenue) vanish, necessitating replacement by **capital** (sovereign wealth funds, ESOPs, EOTs, DAOs, baby bonds) and **transfers** (UBI, dividends, carbon rebates) to achieve **universal high income** (UHI) of $300k+ median household income by 2060 in today's dollars. UHI simulator projects wages shrinking from 82% to residual, with capital expanding to 60-90% of income via stacking 140+ global interventions like Alaska Permanent Fund ($13k/family) and Norway's oil fund model—replicable without oil via VAT, carbon taxes, and endowments. We're already too late: decades of delay created a chasm requiring immediate stop-gap UBI/guaranteed income pilots (e.g., 100+ US cities) while capital ramps up, aligning household interests with economic growth for half-million-dollar median incomes long-term amid demonetization/deflation.
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Elon Musk talks about universal high income, but when asked how to fund it, suggests a VAT tax. Built a UHI simulator based on post-labor economics research. Stacking a portfolio of income sources like sovereign wealth funds, UBI, baby bonds can lead to much higher household income than today. Universal high income is non-wage, non-labor-based income creating higher income than today. Median household income baseline is $83,000/year.
Simulator shows wages (big blue wedge) declining, replaced by universal basic income, sovereign dividends, etc. By 2060, more than double median household income in today's dollars. Goal arbitrarily set at $300,000 per year per household as median income.
Over long run, invalidating wage labor. Three primary economic sectors:
- Primary/extraction sector: from 80+% to <2% today.
- Secondary/manufacturing: peaked at 35% mid-20th century, now 12%.
- Tertiary/services: 65-70% today (measurements vary, but vast majority).
No quaternary sector to migrate to; terminus of human wage labor. Mantra: better, faster, cheaper, safer—machines replace humans, no further migration possible.
Business revenue pays wages, workers spend on products/services, loop continues. If businesses stop paying wages (use machines), deflationary death spiral. Consumer spending drives 70% of GDP; income/payroll taxes 80-85% of federal revenue. Entire system predicated on wage labor and wage taxes. Capital owners need customers; automating away consumers commits fiscal suicide.
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