Why Secondary Markets Are Eating the IPO | All-In Liquidity Secondary Markets Panel
In a Nutshell
Panelists argue that secondaries have become the dominant liquidity path for late-stage private companies, now representing 31% of venture activity and trading at a 106% premium after years of discounts. This shift benefits employees and founders by providing cash without IPO pressure, while platforms like Forge and Schwab are opening access to retail investors through SPVs and interval funds. However, speakers warn that valuations are fully priced, late entrants risk becoming exit liquidity for mega-cap names, and durable returns will favor early, disciplined access to sub-$50B companies with real traction.
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The panel discusses private markets and secondary liquidity. Kelly Rodriguez, Forge CEO, states: "We see a world where the private market opens up and is accessible to any US and global investor." Nineteen companies in the private market AI basket have grown on average 300%. Gavin Baker, managing partner and CIO of Atreides, notes the ROI on AI has been positive. Brad Gerstner references the Invest America program, stating there is a historic moment to get everybody into the game of capitalism.
Brad presents slides showing VC capital flows over the last decade. The red line represents net effect where more capital has gone in than come out for approximately five years. Secondary market volume is at record levels. Later-stage companies are described as "quasi public companies" with daily buying and selling. Secondary transaction volume is now double the 2021 peak. Employee secondary activity is increasing. Secondaries now represent 31% of all primary venture activity in 2025. Secondaries compete with IPOs and acquisitions as principal exit mechanisms.
Secondaries traded at a discount to market in recent years, with buyers paying 80 cents on the dollar. Current pricing is at 106, representing a premium. This data excludes SPV activity including structures charging 10% load-in fees and double carry. The panel discusses impact on employees at companies like SpaceX, which runs orderly liquidity programs.
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