ALERT: THIS OVERSOLD STOCK IS AT 11 YEAR LOWS!
In a Nutshell
Ricky highlights three stocks to watch: Micron is pulling back after a massive rally and could correct sharply if the Nasdaq weakens; MicroStrategy is in a relief rally tied to Bitcoin but remains a weak business likely to retest $80 if crypto sells off. Nike has reached 11-year lows with improving fundamentals, offering long-term value, though short-term patterns suggest any rally to $46 resistance will likely fail and retest lows.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Happy 4th. It's Ricky with Techbook Solutions providing a quick update on Saturday, July 4th at 10:30 a.m. in Arizona. The focus is on several stocks to monitor closely in the upcoming week.
Micron remains one of the best performing stocks of 2025 and 2026. Michael Bur opened a short position against it, raising the question of whether he has a case and whether this could shift sentiment among semiconductor and memory chip stocks. This stock sits at the top of the watch list.
Since the initial rally from $300 to highs of $1,300, Micron has not traded below the moving average. Patterns tend to repeat themselves. The current pullback is notable because it has not made enough progress on the upside recently, suggesting buying pressure and momentum may be slowing. There could be a shift in sentiment, though Michael Bur often tends to be too early.
Support for any move would come from overall NASDAQ movement. If the NASDAQ trades below the EMA line on the daily chart and begins to sell off, the most overhyped stocks could see sharp corrections. Shorting Micron makes sense only with experience; beginners should avoid shorting due to greater risk.
MSTR has recovered nicely as crypto gaps up. From highs of $500 per share, it remains down 80%. It is still considered a terrible business but is experiencing a relief rally. As Bitcoin continues to rise, the question is how high MSTR can climb before dropping again.
MSTR is a terrible business that continues to lose money and requires Bitcoin's price to increase. Sentiment is changing for Bitcoin; if it sells off, MSTR is likely to return to lows of $80 and possibly $70 per share, retesting previous highs.
The goal is to see MSTR move closer to the moving average to become overbought enough for an attractive short entry. MSTR became so oversold that carrying a short overnight carried too much risk despite favorable direction and momentum. It was essentially a dead-cat bounce that found technical support, leading to the current relief rally.
A push toward the 120s is anticipated to wait for rejection and confirmation. From current highs near $100, a retest of previous lows would represent 20% downside. Capturing half of that move would be favorable. Entry around the 117-118 area is targeted, with the moving average serving as a risk management level.
Risk-to-reward calculations show desired entry at $120, stop around $123, and take-profit near $80. Using 100 shares would involve approximately $11,000 in capital with a 6:1 to nearly 7:1 risk-to-reward ratio. Shorting carries greater risk overall.
Nike reported pretty good earnings but sold off initially, then staged a V-shaped recovery with strong momentum. The next day saw a huge gap up, followed by another push the following day. Recent price action looks attractive.
Zooming out reveals a bearish picture: the stock has been selling off since 2021 for years. Nike has now hit 11-year lows, reaching levels not seen since 2014.
Using investing pro software, fair value analysis shows huge upside potential. It trades at a low P/E ratio of 21 times. Net income and revenue have been relatively flat. Quarter-over-quarter growth appears to be finding a bottom.
Long-term investment consideration exists, particularly for a four-year-old daughter and eight-month-old son. Buying at 11-year lows amid fear and uncertainty could prove attractive looking 11 years ahead. The stock has already sold off for 4-5 years, and cheap can always get cheaper.
Short-term, the consistent sell-off pattern suggests viewing any gap up as a retest of previous highs around $46 resistance, followed by rejection and a return to previous lows. From current levels, a retest of lows offers about 10% downside.
The plan is to monitor whether Nike continues to uptick and retests the $46 resistance level. Patterns tend to repeat. Rejection there would indicate whether it sells off again. Short-term volatility makes shorting viable due to the consistent bearishness, while long-term the valuation appears attractive.
Fundamentally, revenue is no longer dropping as sharply. If support holds and the stock begins to uptick, a relief rally could allow Nike to bottom and move higher. Both technical cheapness and improving fundamentals could make sense.
The three stocks at the top of the watch list are Micron, MSTR, and Nike. Focus remains on how markets open once overnight hours begin, especially given tweets already being sent by Trump.
A Sunday stock talk livestream is scheduled to break down top stocks live. The LPP group sale offers $325 off with promo code "firework" at checkout, active until midnight on July 5th. LPP 3.0 includes one-time payment for lifetime access, the A2Z video lesson library for beginners, daily live sessions, and private group chats. Members from 2018 still access live trading today.
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