ALERT: TRUMP CLAIMS IRAN WANTS TO MAKE A DEAL!
In a Nutshell
Trump's announcement that Iran wants a deal sparked a $320B market rally, while PPI came in cooler than expected at 5.5%. Markets reversed sharply lower with Nasdaq and semis deeply oversold, Micron dropping from $1,000 to $900; the speaker cut losses early on MU after buying the dip too soon but kept sizing modest. Stripe's $53B PayPal buyout offer lifted shares 17%, while China posted its weakest growth in three years; focus now is on whether a real Iran deal emerges and if semis stabilize at these levels.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Markets reversed sharply after overnight higher highs, breaking support during pre-market and triggering aggressive selling. The speaker bought the dip expecting a bounce but was forced to cut losses on MU after the decline continued. A subsequent long position on Micron was taken once support formed and recovered, with profits booked before opening a small short. The short remains open with a $1,600 unrealized loss for the day and is planned to be closed as price approaches prior support levels.
Micron holds a major support zone between $800 and $900. The speaker warns that position sizing must be watched carefully at oversold levels and emphasizes the importance of exiting when uncertain rather than holding through further downside.
President Trump stated on Truth Social that Iran wants to make a deal. This single comment added $320 billion in market value. The speaker notes 15 weeks of back-and-forth between the US and Iran and questions how a deal could materialize while the US continues attacks, yet acknowledges that markets rally on any optimism from Trump's statements.
Today's Producer Price Index printed at 5.5% versus the 6.2% expectation, a positive surprise on the producer inflation front. The speaker cautions that further Middle East attacks could push oil prices higher and reverse this disinflationary trend into July.
Stripe made a $53 billion buyout offer for PayPal. The stock initially rallied more than 20% and is currently up 17%, though momentum appears to be fading. The speaker advises monitoring whether the catalyst holds or fades with time.
China posted its weakest economic growth in over three years, returning to levels last seen around 2020.
The NASDAQ is oversold but remains weak. Historical extreme oversold support has occurred near 700–710. Semiconductors are deeply oversold; SanDisk is testing prior lows at $14–15. A break of that zone could trigger another leg lower. Micron traded near $1,000 only hours earlier and has now fallen back to $900.
The speaker entered the dip too early and was stopped out but avoided larger losses because position size was kept modest. The LPP team avoided similar mistakes by respecting the prevailing downtrend rather than fighting it.
Focus remains on whether the semiconductor sector will continue declining at these oversold levels or stabilize, and whether an actual US-Iran deal materializes. Confirmation of a deal would likely lift equities and pressure oil prices lower. The speaker commits to providing ongoing updates.
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