ALERT: Trump Sends Iran Another Attack WARNING!
In a Nutshell
Trump's renewed Iran strikes and Venezuela oil deal are driving oil prices higher while US 10-year Treasury yields approach 2007 levels, threatening 8% mortgage rates as the government intervenes with $4B bond buybacks. Markets sit at all-time highs despite bond yields at 19-month peaks, creating tension between equity gains and government borrowing costs. A trader captured $2,700 profit on a 1.5% move from 216.64 to 220, holding a short position at $300K size.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
NASDAQ is down 0.31% with overall consolidation throughout the day since market open. Days with sideways trading are either favorite days or days to completely stay out of for day traders. Scalping setups involving quickly buying lows and selling highs can produce decent returns, but setups favoring huge overbought reversals, oversold reversals, or clear directional moves where markets are very bullish or very bearish do not work well on such days.
Japan is one of the largest foreign holders in US Treasuries. Their bond yields going higher means the rate at which they borrow will get more expensive. The concern is whether Japan will intervene by selling and dumping US Treasuries like they did previously, which would cause US yields to go up even higher. The last time this unfolded was August 2024.
President Trump stated he will fill up US strategic oil reserves. This follows the Venezuela oil deal where the topping out process will begin very shortly as a gift from Venezuela to the US. Oil prices need close monitoring to see if this puts the US in a favorable position with lower oil prices.
Oil prices are one of the biggest winners during overnight hours, with prices quickly gapping up. Markets have been relatively flat since market open. Oil prices skyrocket during attacks or escalation and drop during deals in the works. The Iran war has been a major focus with this pattern observed.
US Treasuries are trading higher, which President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin do not like. Twelve days ago, the US Treasury intervened in the bond market and announced they would be buying back bonds, increasing from the original $2 billion to $4 billion. They stated they can go more, but initially want bond yields to go lower to provide more security. The intervention helped for about 12 hours before yields began to rebound, now making new 19-month highs.
The 10-year note is now just two basis points away from the highest level since 2007. The 2007 reference connects to the housing bubble crash. The bond market appears to be completely ignoring the US Treasury intervention, indicating uncertainty. The US government cannot afford the 10-year yield at 5 plus percent because this means higher interest payments on borrowed money.
The 10-year Treasury serves as a benchmark for mortgages. As the 10-year benchmark or 10-year yield continues to creep up higher, mortgages will become more expensive. Eight percent mortgages are right around the corner at this point.
President Trump voiced his support on data centers, which is something to pay attention to regarding data center stocks.
Donald Trump confirmed the US will launch another wave of strikes on Iran, marking a second consecutive night of American attacks since the Larocque Island strike. He vowed that Washington will respond to Iran's retaliation. After 30-35 weeks of the deal/no deal situation, the conflict has returned to the starting point.
The pressing concerns are whether the oil reserves deal with Venezuela can remain intact, inflation, and the US bond market. The US bond market is a big concern for the government, while inflation is a big concern for the Federal Reserve.
Markets are nearly trading at all-time highs with NASDAQ and S&P 500 at these levels, but the US Treasury market is trading at nearly 20-year highs for bond yields. This creates a contradiction where one sector thrives while another shows uncertainty, with the government needing to pay significantly more due to higher yields.
Walmart recently reported lower guidance and gapped back down to 101. As a retail-based stock, it now looks technically more oversold.
One good trade resulted in a $2,000 gain from lows of 216.64 to highs of 220, representing a 1.5% move. With over $150,000 behind the trade, this produced slightly over $2K in profit. After seeing common resistance around 220, a short position was opened and is currently held at $300,000. Current profit stands at $2.6K-$2.7K.
Keep Ricky Gutierrez in your library
Save the videos and channels worth coming back to, and find them again in one place.
