Breaking: Iran Denies Talks as Trump Ultimatum Deadline Hits
In a Nutshell
Trump's ultimatum on Iran expired with a tweet announcing productive talks and a 5-day postponement of strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, adding $2T to S&P 500 initially, but Iran's denial triggered a $1T retracement with markets holding oversold levels. No attacks signal de-escalation and potential QQQ recovery to 610; further strikes confirm lies and escalation. Stay cash/light, wait for confirmation via actions—go long on de-escalation/upside, trim/short on attacks/downside; oil plunged (UCO -14.6%) while airlines rose 4-7%.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
QQQ went from lows of 575 to highs of 597 in the pre-market session but has not made new highs yet. Rewatch today's live trading session with the LPP team for every step in preparation for these unprecedented times. Join the LPP team via the second link in the description.
President Trump issued an ultimatum on Iran that was set to run out within 24 hours, later today. Trump tweeted 2.5 hours before markets opened:
I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had and over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding the complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and the tone of these in-depth, detailed and constructive conversations which continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructures for a 5-day period.
This postpones strikes for 5 days, effectively ending the ultimatum with a ceasefire timed perfectly after markets close on Friday.
Iran's foreign minister denies any talks with Washington, accusing Trump of buying time while regional de-escalation efforts continue. Trump claims talks are going well; Iran says no talks. This pattern—attacks on Friday, war-over announcements on Monday—has repeated for the past four weeks.
Truth is determined by reported attacks: further attacks mean war continues and someone is lying; no attacks mean markets can recover from uncertainty-driven sell-off.
- Trump's tweet: markets gap up, $2 trillion added to S&P 500.
- Iran denies: retracement begins, loses about $1 trillion. Markets hold but show no upside progress yet. On larger time frame, markets are oversold with potential to recover to QQQ 610 highs if no escalations.
Trading Advice in Uncertainty
Stay cash or light if not carrying overnight positions. Wait for clear direction. Technically oversold, so no reason to short if Trump's post is truthful. Set alerts:
- If de-escalation confirmed and markets rise: go long.
- If escalations confirmed and markets fall: trim, sell, or short (shorting riskier, opportunity in markets, big tech, oil).
Oil saw huge sell-off: UCO down 14.6%, inverse ETF SCO up 14%. Escalations would reverse this. Airlines up 5%, 4%, 7%—question if it lasts.
No one can predict the future, but everyone can prepare. Money to be made long or short—wait for confirmation, don't fight the trend. Join LPP team (second link) for updates; follow Instagram (third link). End the year green.
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