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Webinar: Guerra en Irán ¿qué va a pasar con las inversiones?

Club de Inversores March 27, 20261h 9m
In a Nutshell

En medio de la tensión por el ultimátum de Trump a Irán, el mercado muestra resiliencia con caídas en tasas y petróleo, subidas en activos de riesgo y metales; el S&P 500 ofrece valoraciones justas (PEG ~1.1), con oportunidades en tech como Nubank, Vista, Nvidia y Mercado Libre por márgenes de seguridad atractivos. Las guerras históricamente generan pisos tempranos en acciones (~10% caída), beneficiando energía y commodities, mientras el oro corrige por tasas altas. Carteras diversificadas del club (60% bonos, metales, emergentes, energía, Bitcoin) superan al 60/40 tradicional en volatilidad baja, Sharpe alto (2.8) y retornos (+31% anual pasado, +5% YTD), priorizando correlaciones bajas y valoraciones.

AI-Generated Notes

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Very good afternoon everyone, how are all the participants who have registered in this webinar about the war in Iran? Our principal host Blas, how are you? Juan, I am very well, expectant. Today is an extremely relevant day because in 20 o'clock United States time—that's 21 hours here in Argentina—Trump's ultimatum ends. There is already a lot of back and forth. Recently, the news that the minister of Pakistan, who is a mediator with Iran, asked the United States to postpone this ultimatum for two weeks. We have to see Trump's answer. Whatever it is, there will be some news, a little more certainty from nine o'clock at night today. Even the betting pages are appreciating this probability of a high fire between the United States and Iran. There's little left.

I can't deny that I saw very little on Twitter a while ago. I saw the closing of the market that surprised me—ended up several assets in green towards the end of today's wheel. I assumed that something in between Trump will be braking, or at least the market is seeing it that way. Since this news came out, we had the typical reaction: oil down, rates down, then all risk assets including metals up. Metals we will talk about later—not during the war have they officiated as a refuge. Apparently, the market is appreciating good news or at least panic mode is not coming with this ultimatum, mainly with the closing of the last minutes. Also the importance Trump gives to the rates that had a nice fall at the end of the wheel.

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