Everyone Is Wrong About China and AI Safety — Sebastian Mallaby Explains
In a Nutshell
Sebastian Mallaby argues that China is actively concerned about AI safety and that the US should pursue cooperation with Beijing to prevent open-weight models from proliferating to terrorists and criminals, rather than focusing only on bilateral deterrence. He draws an analogy to nuclear non-proliferation, proposing a US-China agreement modeled on the IAEA and NPT to restrict dangerous AI capabilities while allowing civilian use. Mallaby contends that chip export controls have failed to create a lasting US lead and that engaging even difficult partners like China is both necessary and precedented, as shown by Cold War negotiations with Khrushchev.
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In March, before the US publication of his book, Sebastian Mallaby traveled to China for an eight-day tour across four cities arranged by his publisher. He met with AI leaders in academia and at major companies including Huawei, Hikvision, and Ant Group. The most surprising finding was the extent to which Chinese counterparts raised the topic of AI safety unprompted. Mallaby had been primed by former Biden administration AI policy contacts to expect no mention of safety, based on the assumption that China lacked concern for the issue.
Western ambivalence toward technology stems from experiences such as the atomic bomb and the Cuban missile crisis. In contrast, China's primary historical catastrophe is viewed as the Cultural Revolution, a political failure rather than a technological one. Technology has been central to China's economic growth over the past 25 years, generating pride rather than suspicion. This perspective explains why the Biden administration's attempts to discuss AI safety and a non-proliferation treaty with China yielded no progress.
Mallaby argues that the door remains open for dialogue with China on preventing malicious actors from misusing AI. China shares Western interests in preventing cyber attacks that could crash the internet, as well as the development of biological or chemical weapons. China already demonstrates strong interest in internet regulation. Mallaby contends that both nations have a joint stake in stopping the uncontrolled spread of dangerous AI capabilities to criminals and terrorists.
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