GOOD NEWS: Israel Opens Negotiation With Lebanon
In a Nutshell
Markets are poised for overbought reversals with short setups in SQQQ (down $1,000, add only on confirmation) and MSTZ on MSTR gaps down, but deescalation in the Middle East—Israel opening direct negotiations with Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah after Trump's urging, plus US-Iran peace talks Saturday—drives bullish gaps higher, so avoid overnight leveraged shorts. Trump announces at 6 PM ET today; treat shorts as intraday trades amid weak economic data (poor GDP, income/spending, claims) and tomorrow's CPI report forecasting inflation jump from 2.4% to 3.4%, killing Fed rate cut hopes. Stay patient, focus on calculated opportunities without leverage; live CPI stream tomorrow 1 hour pre-open.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
The market is setting up for an overbought reversal. Current short setups include a position in SQQQ, currently down over $1,000. Plan to add more once direction becomes favorable. Key rule: only add to positions when making money, not losing money—confirmation is essential. Avoid adding at early reversal signs due to potential further sell-off.
Watching MSTR for overbought reversal. If it gaps down, favorite play is MSTZ (inverse short ETF) with huge upside potential and minimal downside. Markets remain more bullish than bearish, so risk exists from bull sentiment. This is an oversold reversal setup, one of the favorites. Tool used is free on Weeble (first link in description with huge sign-up bonus).
Markets gapped up due to announcements. Trump told Netanyahu to scale back bombings in Lebanon. Netanyahu announced Israel will begin direct negotiations with Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah and establish peaceful relationships, after instructing cabinet yesterday to open talks. Follows private call with Trump urging scale-back on Israel strikes in Lebanon to protect Iran negotiations.
Trump kept his part of the deal. Yesterday pointed finger at Israel for attacking Lebanon aggressively; Iran warned of closing the strait and canceling two-week ceasefire if attacks continued. Trump pressured Netanyahu as a result. Obvious sign of deescalation—markets want attacks to stop.
Trump to make major announcement at 6 PM Eastern today, possibly elaborating on encouraging Netanyahu to stop attacking Lebanon and validating two-week ceasefire. Ships kept close to Iran, boots on ground for readiness if escalation occurs.
US and Iran to hold peace talks Saturday morning in Pakistan. US delegation: JD Vance, Kushner, Wickoff. Positive updates could drive markets higher—avoid holding short positions over weekend.
Short overbought reversals intraday if quick run-up and pullback, but no intention to carry shorts (SQQQ, MSTZ) overnight. Treat leveraged ETFs as day trades: get in, get out, make money, bounce. If trade fails, exit—not worth carrying shorts overnight amid deescalation willingness. Encourage beginners to avoid overnight holds on leveraged ETFs.
Tomorrow: CPI data report. Today's reports: PCE as expected; GDP terrible; PCE price index as expected; personal income and spending worse than expected; initial claims worse than expected. Current inflation 2.4%, forecast 3.4%—full percentage jump. No Fed rate cuts if inflation gaps up 1-2%, as cuts are inflationary.
Live stream free tomorrow 1 hour before market open for CPI reaction.
Tunnel vision on Middle East overlooks weak labor market, rising inflation, economic concerns driving markets lower independently. Stay patient, calculated, take opportunities, but avoid leverage in uncertain times. Details tomorrow during CPI live stream—subscribe, thumbs up. Link for live training sessions (second link). End year green.
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