J.P. Morgan’s Secret Trading Plan For The FOMC Decision Tomorrow!
In a Nutshell
JP Morgan's FOMC analysis shows that even a 25bp rate hike could drive markets up 0.5-1% if it signals fewer 2025 cuts, while a no-hike scenario would push the S&P down 1.25-1.75%. The speaker is short 500 MSTR shares and believes Bitcoin/crypto primarily serves criminal activity, citing Epstein's funding role in its development. Markets are irrational since a rate hike is economically bearish yet could trigger rallies, and the speaker warns against trading tomorrow's volatility without waiting for post-announcement direction.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Over $340 billion has been wiped from the market as the US 10-year Treasury hits the highest level since 2007. The video focuses on JP Morgan's announced trading plan for tomorrow's FOMC rate decision. The speaker emphasizes that institutions may say one thing but do another, but clarifies this is not a conspiracy theory—just information available publicly. Beginners are advised against shorting due to greater risk and should avoid trading tomorrow's likely volatile session. Instead, wait for markets to gap up or gap down based on the report, then make informed decisions.
Over $300 million worth of crypto longs were liquidated in the first 20 minutes after the US Senate failed to advance the Crypto Clarity Act. The speaker is openly biased against crypto, noting that despite 15 years of development, it hasn't been implemented in retail stores or everyday life. Crypto remains primarily used in the black market, with Jeffrey Epstein being one of the main funders behind the MIT project that led to its creation. The speaker believes crypto is the currency for criminals, and all it does is rugpull people.
The speaker announced a short position on MSTR in an earlier video after the Clarity Act rejection. The position went from being down $400 to ending $9,200 in the green. The speaker took profits, then reopened the short when it ripped back up, making another $9,200. Currently holding 500 shares worth approximately $63,000. The speaker trades only shares, never options, citing that shares don't expire and lack the leveraged risk of options. Beginners are advised to stay away from options.
The speaker also traded INTC, making $1,200 on a fully closed position, and Nvidia, losing $72 on a fully closed position. The only open position is the MSTR short of 500 shares. During overnight hours, short positions cannot be opened, so the speaker is holding with a cushion built from today's gains. The goal is to see how low MSTR can go based on previous lows of $125.44.
The speaker believes MicroStrategy is an absolute company and Michael Saylor is completely full of it. Bitcoin is also considered full of it. This is a trade, not an investment, and the speaker won't carry it overnight. The speaker prefers to get in, get out, make money, and leave. Bag holders from $400-$500 per share are down 80-90% while markets hit all-time highs and missed the AI boom. MSTR is showing signs of an overbought reversal with a big gap down expected.
There's a 91.8% probability of no rate hike according to current tools, though the speaker takes this with a grain of salt and doesn't believe the tool. The speaker would love to see markets fall to buy deals and short the selloff. Kevin Walsh is viewed as incredibly biased based on Trump, and the speaker isn't convinced the Fed will follow what the committee wants despite data supporting a rate hike. The live stream will begin 15 minutes before the 2 PM Eastern announcement and continue 30 minutes after, including the press conference.
No hike scenario: Would add upward pressure to longer-dated bond yields as inflation expectations increase, causing the S&P 500 to fall 1.25% to 1.75%.
25 basis point hike with no guidance: This is the consensus view on Wall Street. The yield curve would steepen and the S&P 500 could rise 0.25% to 0.75%.
25 basis point hike removing 2025 easing: Markets would greet this more positively if Kevin Walsh suggests the Fed would start taking back 2025 rate cuts and raise rates in October and December rather than December and March. The S&P 500 could rise 0.5% to 1%.
25 basis point hike with higher RSAR: Without guidance on the neutral real interest rate (RSAR), traders would worry the economic rate is too accommodative, meaning the Fed could have hiked by a full percentage point or more. This scenario could see the S&P 500 fall 0.25% to 1%.
25 basis point hike crushing inflation: If Walsh suggests the Fed funds rate needs to be materially higher and would repeat the 2022-2023 hiking cycle, this could end the bull market with the S&P 500 falling 1% to 2%.
The speaker finds it insane that markets could rally 1% even with a rate hike, which is economically bearish. According to JP Morgan's analysis, even if rates are raised, markets would barely fall 1%.
A senator who voted no on the Clarity Act legislation stated: "The ethics provisions in the bill are simply too thin. President Trump, his children, and his cabinet are making billions of dollars in the crypto space in part from milking everyday Americans out of their hard-earned money. I cannot in good conscience vote for any legislation that codifies that behavior in public officials." Trump has more than doubled his net worth in his first year and a half of his second term. Howard Lutnik has doubled his net worth since becoming Commerce Secretary and is now worth over $7 billion. Jared Kushner increased his net worth by over 220%, rising to $16.7 billion in 2025.
The speaker is frustrated that no government agency is investigating the enrichment of Trump, his family, and cabinet members while in office. If ordinary citizens did this, they'd be investigated and jailed. The speaker believes strict legislation should prevent political figures and their families from enriching themselves while in office. The global bond market is on fire across Japan, US, UK, France, and Germany.
The FOMC rate decision occurs at 2 PM Eastern time (11:00 AM Arizona time). The speaker will go live 15 minutes before markets open. Viewers should not take positions today and hold through tomorrow hoping for the best. Trades should be based on calculated risk, not hope. The job of a trader is not to avoid risk but to manage it. The second link in the description leads to daily live trading sessions with the LPP team.
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