Michael Nielsen – How science actually progresses
In a Nutshell
Michael Nielsen explains scientific progress as messy and non-linear, challenging myths like instant falsification (e.g., Michelson-Morley didn't immediately kill ether theories; relativity won via unification and later muon experiments) and long verification loops (e.g., heliocentrism waited 1800 years for parallax; Darwin needed deep time from geology). He critiques AI's role, praising AlphaFold's data-driven success but warning it fits models without deep explanations, risks overfitting without principles, and struggles with paradigm shifts amid diverse, path-dependent tech trees where new fields continually emerge to counter diminishing returns. Key implications: maintain diverse research programs, value stuck time for deep learning, and anticipate vast inter-civilizational trade from non-convergent discoveries.
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Michael Nielsen is a pioneer of quantum computing, wrote the main textbook in the field, contributed to the open science movement, authored a book on deep learning credited by Chris Olah and Greg Brockman for getting them into the field, and is currently a research fellow at the Astera Institute writing a book about religion, science, and technology. The discussion focuses on recognizing scientific progress, particularly relevant for AI efforts to close the RL verification loop on scientific discovery.
Michelson-Morley experiment (1880s, first in 1881, famous version 1887) tested theories of the ether, introduced by Robert Boyle in the 1600s. Ether was hypothesized as the medium for light propagation after Boyle showed light travels through vacuum unlike sound. The experiment aimed to detect an ether wind from Earth's motion through the ether using interference: light parallel to ether wind accelerated, opposite slowed. Result: no ether wind detected, ruling out some ether theories but not all. Michelson continued believing in ether until his death in late 1920s, conducting experiments into the 1920s. Physicist Miller in 1920s at Mount Wilson claimed to measure ether wind at high altitude.
Einstein later stated uncertainty about knowing the Michelson-Morley paper, though evidence suggests he was aware; it was not central to his thinking. Common narrative (e.g., YouTube) portrays it as proving no ether, creating crisis solved by special relativity. Reality: experiment distinguished ether theories (e.g., stationary vs. Earth-dragged ether). Post-1887, leading physicists accepted no ether wind but developed other ether models. Michelson redid 1881 experiment in 1887 after critiques (e.g., Rayleigh).
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