Stock Market Fear Growing | It's About To Get Worse...
In a Nutshell
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OpenAI's delayed IPO are adding market uncertainty, though major indices remain in an uptrend with support intact. Bitcoin and MSTR have already declined sharply, with further downside expected if broader markets break support. The speaker criticizes Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy strategy, noting STRC investors are down over 25% despite promises of no principal loss and 11.5% returns, while highlighting his own $17,600 trading profit from active MU positions.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Following the UAE's nationwide missile threat, explosions have been heard in Dubai. Reports indicate at least one vessel has been hit near the Strait of Hormuz. This follows an initial hit by the IRGC against a Singapore-flagged cargo ship. These geopolitical events are driving uncertainty in the market, though the market has not shown significant reaction to these developments.
OpenAI, which was supposed to IPO this year, is now pushing its IPO back until 2027. Two possible reasons are discussed: Sam Altman observing that the SpaceX IPO was not as successful as expected in terms of valuation, and potentially an ego-driven decision where Altman wants a larger IPO than SpaceX. The concern is that waiting until market sentiment turns negative could result in an even worse IPO environment if OpenAI needs capital later. Market sentiment reacted negatively to the delay announcement.
Over the past two weeks, there has been more willingness to sell off compared to the previous ten weeks. The market appears less resilient than before. Despite this, the overall market remains bullish. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are building ascending support and have not broken the support level at 700. A significant gap down exists, and if market sentiment turns sufficiently negative, this support could break and trigger a broader sell-off.
Bitcoin is already down 50% and MSTR is already down 81%. If broader markets begin to decline, these already-declined assets will likely fall further. The speaker describes an "incubator effect" where individual speculative stocks drop more significantly than the broader market when overall markets decline.
I give you the upside, you have no downside, and I pay you a dividend while you wait to get rich.
Michael Saylor stated there is no downside to investing in MSTR or STRC. However, STRC investors are currently panicking and down over 25%, with the stock hitting lows of $71.25 before recovering slightly to $75. STRC was designed to trade at $100 with investors receiving 11.5% interest and no principal loss. Saylor openly stated he created the STRC vehicle using ChatGPT. The product is now trading 30% below its target price, and investors have lost principal while not receiving the promised 11.5% return.
MicroStrategy is described as a failing business that loses hundreds of millions of dollars. The company's strategy involves borrowing against shareholders at 0% interest to buy Bitcoin while diluting investors. The speaker argues that any CEO could have executed the same strategy and that Saylor has provided no unique value. The business itself generates no value—Saylor simply uses shareholder money to purchase Bitcoin. The speaker states a preference for buying Bitcoin directly rather than investing in MicroStrategy, and notes that MSTR investors are down significantly while STRC investors are also down.
Unlike Elon Musk, Alex Karp of Palantir, or Jensen Huang of NVIDIA—who have built actual value through innovation and business execution—Saylor's only activity is buying more Bitcoin with shareholder capital. The speaker argues that successful CEOs create value through their businesses, whereas MicroStrategy's growth metric is simply acquiring more Bitcoin using investor funds.
The speaker traded Micron Technologies (MU) extensively during the live trading session, going short multiple times during consolidation, then shorting again on gap up, covering, going long, and then shorting again. The session resulted in $17,600 in profits for the day. The speaker trades live every morning through the Learn Plan Profit platform.
The platform includes a step-by-step lesson library designed for beginners, daily live trading sessions, and Discord chat access. It is offered as a one-time payment for lifetime access. The platform provides risk-to-reward ratio calculators, tools for determining win rate, and methods for determining trading edge. The stated goal is to provide beginners with tools to build an edge in a market characterized by greed, with an emphasis on entering and exiting positions with calculated trades.
As of the time of recording on Friday, the NASDAQ remains in an ascending uptrend pattern with support intact. Markets have been more bullish than bearish overall. The speaker advises against carrying shorts over the weekend until support is broken, citing the principle that markets can stay irrational longer than traders can stay solvent. The recommendation is to close out short positions daily when the overall trend remains bullish. The speaker mentions potentially trimming a portion of the Micron short position, which was larger than initially anticipated.
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