The Department of War is making a huge mistake.
In a Nutshell
The Department of War labeled Anthropic a supply chain risk for refusing to lift restrictions on its AI models for mass surveillance and autonomous weapons, escalating tensions over government leverage to coerce private AI firms amid an AI race with China. While Anthropic's stance sets valuable norms against authoritarian AI uses, rapid open-source advances and government harassment tools (e.g., regulations, contracts) make corporate resistance insufficient long-term. True safeguards require democratic laws and norms prohibiting government AI-driven surveillance and control, akin to post-WWII nuclear taboos, rather than empowering state mandates on AI values or development.
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Department of War declared Anthropic a supply chain risk because Anthropic refused to remove red lines around using their models for mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. This is a warning shot. Currently, large models (LMs) are not used in mission-critical ways, but within 20 years, 99% of the workforce in the military, civilian government, and private sector will be AIs: robot armies for the military, superhumanly intelligent advisers for senators, presidents, and CEOs, police, etc. Future civilization will run on AI labor.
Government's actions are infuriating but this episode prompts thinking about important questions. Department of War has the right to refuse Anthropic's models and has a reasonable case, especially given ambiguity of terms like mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. If Secretary of War, would make the same determination.
Imagine future Democratic administration where Elon Musk negotiates Starlink access for the military and says he reserves the right to cut off access if fighting an unjust war or unauthorized by Congress. This seems reasonable, but military cannot give a private contractor a kill switch on relied-upon technology.
If government just refused business with Anthropic, that would be fine. Instead, government threatened to destroy Anthropic as a private business for refusing to sell on government-demanded terms. If upheld, supply chain restriction would require companies like Amazon, Nvidia, Google, and Palantir to ensure Anthropic does not touch Pentagon work. Anthropic might survive today via cordoning off, but AI will eventually be woven into every product built, maintained, and operated.
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