The Fed Wants To Hike Rates But The Market Doesn't Care

Dell Technologies Short Trade Setup01:30

The next trade that I'm watching to short, this is just my opinion. Please do not copy this trade. I'm not like other people on YouTube that like, "Oh, I need you to agree with me. I need you to cop." No, none of that. Dell Dell Technologies is up 11.1% off of no news. It's just rallying because Trump has said it's a good buy. And don't get me wrong, I mean, anything can stay irrational, but just two days ago, it gapped up and then sold off for the remaining two days. So, Dell is not a stranger to pumping and dumping, right? Pumping and dumping or correcting along the way. It's really good at consistently showing signs of an uptrend pattern ever since Trump announced it as a good buy. But with that being said, it is not a stranger to pulling back, which is why it's at the top of my list because it moved up so much 11 to 12% on the day, so did the NASDAQ market. And I believe that as we get closer to the market close, markets will most likely derisk going into the weekend knowing that things can get worse before they get better, especially with the expectation of the Federal Reserve next week raising interest rates.

CPI Report Analysis02:31

So what exactly happened with the CPI report? So what what do I mean that not maybe everyone is understanding? Remember there is a expectation that everyone's talking about well inflation came in as expected 2.4% 2.4% 4%, right? 3.4% 3.4%. There's, you know, no surprise there. But if you look at core CPI, remember core CPI is really what the Federal Reserve focuses on. It's really what they can influence, right? They can't really focus on overall CPI because they can't control oil prices, but they can focus on core CPI, all items less food and energy. And they saw they expected a 2% increase, but the actual increase month overmonth was a.3% increase. That is higher than what was expected. And that is why you are seeing such a big jump on the probability for a rate hike next week because the area in which is most likely influenced by the Federal Reserve is actually trading higher and that is why the probability for a rate hike has gone up because previously we were at like 65 or 63% we jumped all the way up to 83%. This is the highest probability that I've seen when it comes down to if we're going to be raising interest rates.

Risk Management Advice04:02

As of right now, NASDAQ market is doing a great job remaining elevated. I'm just here to remind you that again, during uncertain times, if you feel like the market's acting in an irrational way, watch your position size and watch your exposure, right? There's no reason to be overleveraged at overbought levels, knowing that things can correct before they actually continue to get better. All the concerns that we've had recently are all still present. The Middle East, Iran, oil prices, inflation, the labor market, they're all a present concern and they haven't gone away. So, please make sure that again you take that into consideration before you make an impulsive trade that you end up bag holding and later end up regretting. Again, if you guys have any questions, feel free to comment down below. Just wanted to make sure that I did my part in keeping you guys up to date.