The Fed Wants To Hike Rates But The Market Doesn't Care
In a Nutshell
Markets are rallying despite an 83%+ probability of a Fed rate hike next week, driven by hotter-than-expected core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2% expected). The speaker closed a $1,300 profit on Oracle short and is eyeing Dell Technologies for a short, citing its 11%+ rally on no news and history of sharp pullbacks. Risk management emphasized—reduce position sizes ahead of weekend Fed decision amid ongoing geopolitical and inflation concerns.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Can you believe it? What's going on, guys? It's Ricky with Tech Solutions. And only in Trump's economy can we have the market up 1.1% even after now the probability for a rate hike is over 83.3%. You guys let me know down in the comments section. Is the Federal Reserve next week going to raise rates? Regardless of what this tool says, remember, no one can predict the future. Kevin Walsh was handpicked by Trump and the idea was that he would kind of have his back. But remember, it's a committee. A number of members vote if they're going to be raising or pausing or cutting interest rates. As of right now, there's an incredibly high probability, which some people are kind of scratching their head asking why. I'm going to explain all of this to you right now.
So, first off, we just wrapped up our live trading session with the LPP team. If you ever want to tune on in to watch me trade live, it's the second link in the description down below. It's the only group that I work with and that watches me trade live every day. I offer nothing else. With that being said, one of the quickest trades that we took this morning was honestly I missed out on the very big move was the short that I had. I made $1,300 on the initial drop on Oracle. It had a lot of consolidation. So, I closed I actually bought the dip. I closed it because it ended up not showing any signs of recovery even though NASDAQ was starting to recover. So, I saw the discrepancy there of the lack of progress and if there's just a bunch of consolidation and no progress, I just closed it out. Gladly I did because, you know, ended up producing another leg down, which means I didn't have to lose any more money. So, I made $1,300. I was up like 1,600, but it is what it is.
The next trade that I'm watching to short, this is just my opinion. Please do not copy this trade. I'm not like other people on YouTube that like, "Oh, I need you to agree with me. I need you to cop." No, none of that. Dell Dell Technologies is up 11.1% off of no news. It's just rallying because Trump has said it's a good buy. And don't get me wrong, I mean, anything can stay irrational, but just two days ago, it gapped up and then sold off for the remaining two days. So, Dell is not a stranger to pumping and dumping, right? Pumping and dumping or correcting along the way. It's really good at consistently showing signs of an uptrend pattern ever since Trump announced it as a good buy. But with that being said, it is not a stranger to pulling back, which is why it's at the top of my list because it moved up so much 11 to 12% on the day, so did the NASDAQ market. And I believe that as we get closer to the market close, markets will most likely derisk going into the weekend knowing that things can get worse before they get better, especially with the expectation of the Federal Reserve next week raising interest rates.
So what exactly happened with the CPI report? So what what do I mean that not maybe everyone is understanding? Remember there is a expectation that everyone's talking about well inflation came in as expected 2.4% 2.4% 4%, right? 3.4% 3.4%. There's, you know, no surprise there. But if you look at core CPI, remember core CPI is really what the Federal Reserve focuses on. It's really what they can influence, right? They can't really focus on overall CPI because they can't control oil prices, but they can focus on core CPI, all items less food and energy. And they saw they expected a 2% increase, but the actual increase month overmonth was a.3% increase. That is higher than what was expected. And that is why you are seeing such a big jump on the probability for a rate hike next week because the area in which is most likely influenced by the Federal Reserve is actually trading higher and that is why the probability for a rate hike has gone up because previously we were at like 65 or 63% we jumped all the way up to 83%. This is the highest probability that I've seen when it comes down to if we're going to be raising interest rates.
As of right now, NASDAQ market is doing a great job remaining elevated. I'm just here to remind you that again, during uncertain times, if you feel like the market's acting in an irrational way, watch your position size and watch your exposure, right? There's no reason to be overleveraged at overbought levels, knowing that things can correct before they actually continue to get better. All the concerns that we've had recently are all still present. The Middle East, Iran, oil prices, inflation, the labor market, they're all a present concern and they haven't gone away. So, please make sure that again you take that into consideration before you make an impulsive trade that you end up bag holding and later end up regretting. Again, if you guys have any questions, feel free to comment down below. Just wanted to make sure that I did my part in keeping you guys up to date.
If you zoom out on the five-minute time frame, you can see how much the market has recovered, which kind of paints the bigger picture that if we do break this support at the EMA and we see that break of support, NASDAQ has all of this to drop. And that's the part that really excites me is that if NASDAQ begins to drop, everything will most likely drop with it. And that's where I see it to be very exciting for Dell because again, if NASDAQ begins to drop, it will most likely drag Dell down with it. So again, I'll do my part in keeping you guys up to date. If you guys have any questions, feel free to comment down below.
And don't forget, right, whenever you're ready to join us for these daily live sessions, you can literally join us for it breaks down to less than a $110 a day. You get to watch me trade live every day. It's a onetime payment for lifetime access. Second link in the description down below if you want to take advantage of that sale. I appreciate you guys' time. Hope that we're earned a thumbs up. And like always, let's make sure that we end the year on a reo. Take care team and happy
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