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The next 36 months will be WILD

David ShapiroFebruary 26, 202632m

Topics12

Convergence on AGI, ASI, and RSI Timelines0:00 METER Eval and Super-Exponential Autonomy Growth2:03 Five Requirements for Recursive Self-Improvement4:03 Industrial Siege: AI Race and Point of No Return10:30 Current Bottlenecks13:32 Defining AGI by Impact, Not Sci-Fi19:01 Economic Impact and Solow Paradox 2.022:30 Vanishing Ladder and Ghost Jobs23:53 Step Function to Automation Cliff25:02 AI Risk Quadrants27:00 Leading Indicators to Watch29:01 Four Groups on AI Significance and Outcomes30:30

In a Nutshell

AGI and superintelligence are forecasted for 2027-2028 by leaders like Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, and Jensen Huang, driven by super-exponential autonomy growth (METER eval: Claude Opus at 14.5-hour median, doubling every 90-100 days toward week-long tasks by end-2026) and imminent RSI via advances in math, data, code, training, and evals. Unstoppable AI race (US-China, $600B infra sunk costs) clears bottlenecks like chips/HBM (solved soon) and energy (microgrids/SMRs by 2028-2030), triggering an automation cliff: jobless growth, vanishing entry-level jobs, and Solow Paradox 2.0 with exploding GDP/productivity decoupled from employment. Watch METER scores hitting 24+ hours, trillion-dollar capex, and imploding hiring; accelerationists predict high-impact positive transformation despite short-term shocks, dismissing doomer/x-risk fears.

AI-Generated Notes

These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.

Why does it seem like all of a sudden everyone is talking about AGI, ASI, and recursive self-improvement (RSI) in the 2027 to 2028 window? Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, and others like Dario Amodei are converging around this timeframe.

Key Predictions and Sources

Dario Amodei (Anthropic): Powerful AI matching Nobel-level capability, "a country of geniuses in a data center," around 2027-2028.
AI 2027 report (from safety researchers like Daniel Kokotajlo): Modal prediction for AGI 2027-2028; window has collapsed from decades to months with smaller error bars.
Jensen Huang: AGI competitive on broad human tests within 5 years (speaker thinks he's sandbagging).
Sam Altman: Research intern by 2026 (widely agreed upon across internet, Twitter, domains like advanced mathematicians, economists); superintelligence by 2028.

These are objective statements from the experts on AGI, ASI, and RSI, with RSI expected this year or 2027 at latest.

METER eval shows super-exponential growth (logarithmic scale still curving up exponentially). Latest data: Claude Opus jumped to median autonomous success rate of 14.5 hours, 95th percentile up to 90+ hours (as of February 2026). This ricocheted across the internet; 96 hours ≈ 4 days.

Doubling time shortening from 4-7 months to 90-100 days (one quarter). Not even through first quarter of 2026, so potentially three more doublings this year:

From 14.5 hours → 29 hours → ~60 hours → 120 hours (~1 week). Approaching 60-120 hours machine autonomy by end of 2026 at current rates.

1. Algorithmic Research/Math

Gold medal on IMO (International Math Olympiad) achieved by two labs last year. No need to solve Millennium Prize problems (e.g., Andrej Karpathy, Ilya Sutskever haven't, yet lead AI). Threshold: Between IMO gold and Millennium Prizes for advancing AI architectures/algorithms/theories.

2. Data Generation and Curation

Latest models trained on 10-20% synthetic data. Risks model collapse, but labs using self-play (like AlphaGo, AlphaFold) for infinite text generation, validated by selecting best from thousand reasoning traces. Models grade each other. Human brains learn with far less data; not near data efficiency ceiling.

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