URGENT: Don't Trade Until You See This Iran News!
In a Nutshell
Markets opened green on Pakistan's unverified US-Iran peace deal claim that reversed oil gains, while 30-year yields continued rising despite the selloff. Traders became skeptical of Trump's claim about a private Iran agreement, causing markets to decline amid overbought conditions and multiple risk factors including tomorrow's CPI report. The speaker closed positions with $3,200 profit from Micron trading and recommends reducing exposure or staying in cash ahead of the inflation data.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Markets opened in the green this morning with QQQ slightly positive. Pakistan announced that the US and Iran are close to reaching a peace agreement, marking the 15th time Pakistan has made such claims that did not materialize. Following this announcement, oil prices began to fall, reversing all gains made from the previous day as the market reacted to the prospect of reduced geopolitical tensions.
Despite the oil selloff, US 30-year bond yields continued rising. Higher yields indicate uncertainty about the US government's ability to service its debt, causing investors to demand higher interest rates to compensate for perceived risk. The US currently pays $2 trillion annually in debt interest.
Trump stated that Iran has privately agreed to all terms requested but refuses to publicly confirm the deal due to fear of domestic backlash. Iran has maintained that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until its conditions are met, with officials warning that any renewed attacks or commitment breaches would face stronger Iranian responses.
Markets subsequently declined as traders questioned the validity of the Trump-Iran deal narrative. The speaker expressed distrust in both parties, noting Trump's pattern of market-moving statements and the difficulty in assigning credibility to claims that appear designed to influence market sentiment.
The July CPI inflation report releases tomorrow, one hour before market open. Super Micro and CoreWeave report earnings after market hours today, with both companies positioned as significant players for 2026-2027 projections.
Markets exhibited strong selloffs followed by rip-ups throughout the session, creating conditions favorable for scalpers rather than position traders. The speaker closed all positions after profiting $3,200 trading Micron from both sides. A potential Palantir overbought reversal opportunity was identified but not executed due to lack of market conviction.
The NASDAQ shows minimal net progress despite volatility, with slight pullbacks observed. The market remains in overbought territory across multiple timeframes. The speaker advises against using leverage at current extended levels, emphasizing that while investors should not fear market participation, overleveraging near resistance increases downside risk significantly.
Key risks remain active including the South Korean leverage situation, Japanese carry trade unwind, and the falling Japanese yen. The CPI report represents a significant catalyst that could trigger volatility. The speaker recommends either staying in cash or reducing exposure ahead of the inflation data, noting that profit-focused traders often overlook risk management during uncertain periods.
The emphasis remains on risk awareness rather than encouraging buying activity. Market participants should evaluate their position sizing and exposure levels to ensure they can withstand potential pullbacks. The overbought conditions combined with multiple geopolitical and economic catalysts suggest caution is warranted before tomorrow's inflation data release.
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