ALERT: Why SpaceX Stock Could EXPLODE Soon!
In a Nutshell
SpaceX stock surged on hype despite minimal float and extreme valuation disconnect from its $18B revenue, but faces major unlock waves starting August 11th that could trigger heavy selling. As a momentum-driven trade rather than investment, it carries high risk of 22%+ downside if sentiment shifts, requiring strict position sizing and profit-taking. Broader market uncertainty from tomorrow’s FOMC decision and geopolitical tensions adds further volatility.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
SpaceX lagged on the current trading day following an exceptionally strong performance the previous day (Monday). During normal trading hours, the stock rose approximately 20%, and during extended hours it reached an additional 20% gain at one point. From the intraday high of $230, the stock traded flat through the market open and close.
Only 5% of SpaceX stock is currently floating, with 95% still locked according to multiple articles. The bearish pressure from insider selling typically occurs later when insiders are permitted to sell. The unlock schedule begins with the first wave on August 11th (nearly a month away from the video date), allowing 20% to sell and bringing the total unlocked to 25%. Subsequent unlock dates include August 21st, September 10th, September 25th, and October 10th. By October 10th, over 50% of the stake will be allowed to sell. The bullish activity observed may be linked to this upcoming unlock schedule.
SpaceX reached a valuation of $2.64 trillion, surpassing Amazon's valuation. However, SpaceX's revenue stands at $18 billion compared to Amazon's $742 billion. SpaceX does not generate profit, whereas Amazon does. The comparison highlights two fundamentally different companies in different sectors. The stock is characterized as a momentum-based stock driven by hype, being one of the amped-up IPOs.
Using Tesla as an example, the "Elon effect" illustrates how hype can drive valuations beyond fundamentals. The speaker clarifies that this is not an attack against Elon Musk, whom he describes as "one of the greatest minds of our generation," but rather an understanding of the difference between a trade and an investment. If an individual believes SpaceX is a good investment at $25, they are free to act accordingly as an adult.
SpaceX sold off 13.4% intraday from highs to lows. The stock ultimately closed 4.8% in the green. Sentiment and direction are critical for momentum-based trades. Once hype begins to fade, traders should not be afraid to take profits. Uncertainty tends to affect speculative stocks first. SpaceX is described as a speculative stock based on momentum and price action, requiring experience to trade safely. Beginners are advised not to use leverage and to be mindful of position sizing. The speaker personally avoids trading SpaceX in live sessions due to its risk profile.
The FOMC rate decision is scheduled for tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time (press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time). According to the Fed rate monitor tool on investing.com, there is a 98.9% probability the Federal Reserve will pause rates, with a 1.1% probability of an interest rate increase. The live streaming of the decision is available on the speaker's YouTube channel.
President Trump commented today that he does not support Israel fighting Hezbollah, stating it is taking too long and killing too many people, including civilians. He indicated that if Israel cannot perform the job without killing civilians, Syria will perform the job. Trump also stated that Israel would not exist without the United States or without him. Iran's IRGC issued a threat of harsh response against Israel, accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire and Lebanon clause from the United States agreement 84 times in the past dal two days. Further violations may lead additional threats.
If sentiment changes and momentum begins to fade, SpaceX has room to fall from its current highs of approximately $26 per share to an average IPO price of around $ images160, representing about 22% downside potential. The speaker emphasizes that when treating SpaceX as a trade, traders should be intentional, understand position size, avoid leverage, plan profit targets, and know where to cut losses. Losing 5% is unpleasant, but losing 20% is far worse. The focus should be on risk management rather than risk avoidance.
The speaker will discuss further during live trading session tomorrow morning at market open. He asks viewers whether they are bullish on SpaceX as a day trade or as an investment, and whether they view it as a short-term rally or long-term catalyst. There is no right or wrong opinion.
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