America’s Paper Economy Is Breaking

Tug of War Over Power in Empire's Last Phase00:00

During the last phase of an empire, there's a tug of war over power: who controls money, trade, and makes the rules. In 2025, President Donald Trump signed an order for 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on goods from China. A tariff is a tax placed by a government on imports. Stock market reacted negatively as US corporations paid these taxes, but tariffs raised billions for the US government. Recently, Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the president cannot use emergency powers to impose tariffs, striking down most of Trump's global tariffs—a major blow to his economic agenda. All tariff revenue must theoretically be refunded to corporations.

Betting on Tariff Refunds01:30

While the legal battle played out, a corporation allegedly bought rights to potential tariff refunds at 20-30 cents on the dollar. For a $100 tariff payment, claims bought for $20-30 could be worth $100 if refunded, yielding 3-5x returns. If tariffs stay, claims worth nothing. The company allegedly betting on Supreme Court ruling against tariffs was Cantor Fitzgerald, with close ties to Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick. Designers of tariff policy financially positioned on its outcome—called crony capitalism. Company denies it. This exemplifies sovereign power asserting itself while financial power profits regardless of outcome by betting on both sides.

Introduction and Power Model03:00

Hi, my name is Andre Jick. Power is about incentives; different groups represent different interests that sometimes overlap. Players use leverage: