Joe Rogan Experience #2474 - Dave Smith
In a Nutshell
Dave Smith and Joe Rogan critique U.S. government corruption (e.g., uninvestigated insider trades like oil bets and Howard Lutnick's tariff plays), escalating war risks with Iran driven by Israel lobby influence and Netanyahu's "Greater Israel" ambitions, and hypocrisy in foreign policy from Gaza devastation to regime change lies echoing Iraq/Libya failures. They warn this war shatters Trump's anti-intervention coalition, praise non-experts debating facts over authority, and pivot to MMA highlights like McGregor's dynamism, Ngannou's threat, and UFC business shifts to Paramount. Key takeaways: oppose endless Middle East wars bankrupting America for foreign interests, support voices like Thomas Massie and Tulsi Gabbard against neocon pressures, while celebrating authentic podcasts over dying mainstream media.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Dave Smith recounts receiving an impromptu phone call and betting hundreds of millions on oil prices going down. It was a good bet but timed poorly; he got in five minutes late. Someone made $1.8 billion in five minutes, yet no massive investigation. Many such trades go uninvestigated.
Howard Lutnick, Commerce Secretary, worked for CNBC, now in the administration. Accusation: He promoted tariffs as golden while personally shorting them, standing to gain if people sued over tariffs. Lutnick visited Epstein's island. Confident liar in interview: Met Epstein once in 2005 at his apartment, saw massage table, Epstein said "the right kind of massages," told wife they'd never hang out with him again. Despite Epstein files, he still works in government; some resigned.
Lutnick downplays relationship: Never in room with Epstein except 2005 visit. Morally outraged in clip.
Cantor Fitzgerald (Lutnick's former firm, now chaired by his son) explored buying tariff refund rights for 20-30 cents on the dollar. If courts struck down tariffs, they'd get full refunds. Facilitated at least one $10 million trade under IEEPA tariffs. Capacity for hundreds of millions. Firm insists no transactions executed, backed off due to political optics of Lutnick's job. No public evidence of profits; congressional investigations ongoing. Democrats may investigate if they take House and Senate in midterms.
AI could run government better than humans, less greedy, as long as it values human life. San Francisco: Tech guys trapped in Waymo attacked by homeless man yelling "you're paying robots, traitor." Another: Woman enters Waymo, homeless man in trunk from previous rider leaving it open.
Jared Kushner involved despite foreign business; now lead negotiator with Witkoff. Insider trading in Congress, slimy NGO deals—everything dirty. Post office exception: Moves letter across country for ~60 cents (stamp cost).
Postal workers went crazy, shooting people; phrase "going postal" emerged. Video game Postal (1997) criticized; top-down shooter, cartoonish characters running around killing. Compared to early Grand Theft Auto.
Video games like crack, too fun, no accomplishment. Dave quit UFC 3 after marriage and pregnancy. Relapsed playing at Dojo of Comedy green room, felt like drug addict near drug. UFC games now at 5, graphics and movement improving.
Joe Lauzon obsessed with video games, switched to jujitsu, became amazing. Fun fighter; he and brother had full MMA fights in front yard, top 1% yard fighting. Lauzon in UFC ~decade (2006-2019), fought BJ Penn era to Anthony Pettis championship.
MMA hardest: One mistake ends fight (e.g., Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards—Usman ahead in round 5, Edwards lands head kick with 20 seconds left; Anik: "that is not the cloth from which he was cut." Edwards wins rubber match. KO impacts psychologically/physically, shifts confidence/narrative.
Poirier weathered initial storm, confidence grew after taking shots. Calf kicks key: Both southpaws, McGregor post-Mayweather had wider stance, more weight on legs. Calf kick popularized recently, now majority of leg kicks; thigh kicks rare due to conditioning, leg breaks (Anderson Silva, Chris Weidman).
TurboTax: In-person locations nationwide, experts maximize deductions.
Conor McGregor recognizes Achilles injuries instantly, predicting the tendon wrapping around the calf, flopping, and the fighter falling. He's seen it multiple times in internet videos and UFC fights. Only once has he seen a fighter continue trash-talking from the ground—everyone else cries in pain. McGregor trash-talked about the opponent's wife. He invited Joe Rogan for a podcast; he's an animal, one-of-a-kind. He posted on Instagram that he's back after his suspension for whatever he took ends.
McGregor's Instagram post: "Mr. Confidence returns to save fighting again call your grandma nanny. We did it. Watch and pay me fuck you pay me you fat Irish prick. You don't have my money I put your brain to sleep." It's about McGregor, possibly drunk. He mentions casinos after Mac loves you, all love and honor, light work for life and eternity. "I do this fight game easy peasy the sound of my shots off the head go Bing in green dot laser form." Hope he's back; it'd be fun. He's the most dynamic personality in the sport, no one close. For a time, an unbelievable fighter.
McGregor vs. Eddie Alvarez Fight
McGregor-Danny Alvarez fight was incredible; Joe Rogan was there with good seats thanks to Dave Smith. Might be the best live fight seen; whole card standing, main event unbelievable. McGregor in the matrix, in the zone. Dana White: "that kid eats pressure," thrives on it while others wilt, shines under pressure. Even early career, unique ability to create spectacles. First UFC fight vs. Brimage (relatively unknown), crowd going nuts due to street cred and Irish support. Makes opponent's biggest career moment with shit-talking, exciting fans; completely comfortable there.
Even with Aldo (came in as champion from WEC, dominated featherweight division), McGregor created massive moment. Aldo was boogeyman, but McGregor made him furious: "I'm gonna take this fucking guy's head off." McGregor relaxed, didn't care about shit-talking. Aldo lost composure, looked overwhelmed. Entire Mandalay Bay overcome with Irish people singing in halls, partying in lines. For Conor. Irish rode-or-die even for Floyd Mayweather fight. For McGregor-Dennis Seaver (Siver?) fight, in Boston Irish bar in Midtown Manhattan shoulder-to-shoulder Irish people losing minds, singing, chanting, Irish flags. Everywhere at MGM, Mandalay Bay, every casino.
Imaginary Scenario
Northern Ireland person on Vegas vacation during troubles era, no MMA knowledge, picks wrong week: hotel overrun.
Douglas Murray's New York Post op-ed knocked Dave Smith: goes on Joe Rogan talking foreign policy like expert, but wouldn't talk MMA where Joe would recognize he's not. They talk MMA almost every hangout; Joe corrects if wrong. If right, doesn't dismiss as non-expert. Silly notion they'd never talk MMA. Dave watches a lot, has thoughts. Loves Douglas, brilliant, but disappointed in strategy. Disappointing notion you shouldn't talk factual things. Doesn't argue MMA points; accepts corrections or disagreements. Objective claims are good or not: e.g., Volkanovski vs. Lopes, jab crucial—correct or not regardless of expertise.
Debate Disappointment
Weird incentives lead people to say odd things. Dave thought debate cool; Joe called, Dave agreed instantly. Douglas wanted good faith, not food fight. But Douglas focused on Dave, not issues; handed Dave the win on big show. Objectively, hard to argue Gaza not horrific.
Civilians subjected to governments like ICE, Homeland Security, cops must obey orders. Gaza child/woman not Hamas; responsible for Oct 7? Even street-cheering under terror, go along for safety. Place leveled: homes, schools, hospitals—horrific, indefensible. Recent videos months old; bombing slowed but not stopped, nothing left. Osama bin Laden said civilians fair targets because they elect politicians waging wars slaughtering Muslims. Gaza: no government, Hamas not government, one election 2005/06, didn't win majority (pluralities). Holding civilians responsible senseless. Basic human level: real people; mother pulling 6-year-old dead body from rubble same as if your wife did. Changes calculation: onus to prove absolutely necessary, no other option. Defends most wars difficult. Israel-Palestine: never tried independence, ending occupation. Crazy world didn't demand statehood. Kind of country but attached.
Canadians get citizenship, easy time vs. ICE. Ditch accent, pretend American. ICE at airports: low tens of thousands agents, many airports, surplus? Up to 150 deployed Monday. Social media: lines longer before/after ICE, questions 10 million illegals. Real number unknown. Ann Coulter's Adios America (2014/2015), Bear Stearns: 30-50 million pre-Biden. At least 10 million under Biden (700k monthly apprehensions, many gotaways, caravans). Trump secured border quickly despite criticisms. No one's illegal on stolen land, but sex trafficking, children dragged/sold horrible. 2022 post: at least 50 million today. Book influenced Trump on immigration.
Treachery and Polling
Profound treachery against domestic population will; no polling on open borders (maybe 1% support)—unified issue. Drastically changes country, hard to undo; Trump backed off mass deportations (big business, violence level Americans won't tolerate, e.g., Minnesota). Trump asked ICE at airports not wear masks (doxxing concern), balancing act. Right-wing: illegal = crime. But Constitution supreme; masked unidentified ICE demanding answers, no warrant/militarization opens door for abuse (vaccines, etc.).
Credible source: many in US applied for asylum (direct terrorist org affiliates/sympathizers, networks), can't deport until full process/judge decides—sleeper cells? Suicidal empathy (Gad Saad). Preserve society, not worsen from guilt. Not big Gad fan; trashes Dave as "Wikipedia Dave," refuses engagement. Different relationship; Dave criticizes Israel, Gad ex-Mossad (admitted past work). Missing: US foreign policy creates enemies. Not saying Islam peaceful; religions problematic. Sam Harris: Muslims violent/irrational, can't draw Muhammad cartoon. Fair, but West: free speech, no killing for cartoons. Yet they ignore murdering ayatollah dangerous during Ramadan (political/religious to Shiites). Keith Knight: no suicidal empathy, also no homicidal empathy.
Slaughtering Muslim children in the Middle East and Northern Africa is viewed as acceptable political collateral damage from pursuing this policy. Combined with open borders allowing unchecked entry and inability to deport, while continuing the war on terrorism, this is the most insane combination. It creates an entire generation of Muslims hating the US due to actions in their countries, yet welcoming them in without checks.
Sam Harris talked about Dave Smith recently on Bill Maher. The podcast didn't happen because Dave suggested it; Sam wanted a COVID wrap-up debate on positions—Sam pro-vaccine, Dave not. Dave insisted Sam talk to Brett Weinstein first, whom Sam disparaged as a conspiracy theorist and refused to platform. Brett was correct on vaccine effectiveness, safety, masking, social distancing, and lockdowns; Sam was incorrect. Brett is an evolutionary biologist who spoke with high-level vaccinologists and mRNA vaccine workers. Sam debates Muslims on stage but avoided Brett because Brett was right.
Sam said Joe shouldn't interview Gaddafi if alive. Joe would. Russell Brand clip went viral discussing why they targeted Gaddafi: he wanted a United States of Africa, gold standard, off US dollar, supported Palestinian resistance. Under Gaddafi, every person got a house at a certain age, free education and healthcare; government paid for overseas education for talents. US interfered; Gaddafi ran afoul of US government. Famous Hillary Clinton clip: upon confirmation of Gaddafi's death, "We came, we saw, he died," laughing. Led to Libya as failed state, still is. Called Hillary's war; she championed it as Secretary of State under Obama, who was 50/50 and regretted not planning post-Gaddafi.
Trump hasn't figured out non-intervention; pushing seventh war. Military expert suggested fan of boots on the ground like Rome—Rome had no nukes or drones. Iran occupation: huge country, 92 million people, needs at least 500,000 soldiers, probably more. No draft for least popular war in history, less popular than Vietnam going in. Vietnam syndrome: public reluctance post-Vietnam. Ben Shapiro said Trump broke Iraq war syndrome—from their view, public resistance after lying into wars killing millions is the illness. George HW Bush defeated Vietnam syndrome in Panama and Gulf War (easy, limited US casualties), but bombed Iraq for 30 years after, still at war effectively.
Perplexity query: current US public support for Iran war low. Quinnipiac poll: 54% oppose US military action against Iran, 39% support. Six in ten say action gone too far, 25% say about right. Republicans 86% support, Democrats 92% oppose, independents 64% oppose. CNN graphic: 100% MAGA supports war, framing to make MAGA look bad. Non-MAGA: 66-31 split against. Most unpopular war going in; no propaganda sell, lazy lie.
Iran regime giant problem; Israel surrounded by enemies wanting caliphate, killing Jews per scripture. Trump admits Adelsons give money daily with Israel demands. Early trouble with Israel lobby, pivoted by promising to tear up JCPOA (Obama Iran deal). Convinced post-Venezuela protests (per Joe Kent, Trump counter-terrorism director) for swift regime removal, people rising up. Trump launched as regime change, called Iranians to rise—hundreds of thousands in Tehran defended regime, chanting "death to America." Killing 165 girls doesn't win love. Pre-bombing protests; regime kills public figures like prominent wrestlers (UFC tried intervening).
Trump claimed regime killed 32,000 protesters—no evidence. Iran acknowledged deaths; pre-Ayatollah kill, ~3,000; CIA/WSJ estimated 6,500. Time magazine (Jan 25): local health officials say up to 30,000 killed Jan 8-9 alone, overwhelmed body bags, used 18-wheel semis. Time couldn't verify. HRANA confirmed 5,459 deaths, investigating 17,000 more. If true, massive massacre. Skeptical pre-war claims; internet shut down, minimal evidence like couple dozen body bags. Protests violent: burned police stations, attacked mosques—not just peaceful. Mossad bragged involvement per Jerusalem Post. Intelligence agencies historically create events. US governments kill threats too—Ashley Babbitt shot Jan 6, left justified as insurrection.
Sig P320 notorious for accidental discharges—one in chamber. Video: cop moves gun, it discharges. Demonstrated online: cop bends over, holstered gun fires; range incident. Sig makes great guns like P365, but P320 issue. Fuck-up: disarmed, didn't communicate, panicked, six bullets. Right-wingers justified after video of him kicking cop car.
Unclear accusations: overthrow attempt mowed down, or executed for opinions? War drums ignore questions. Like Venezuela, throw 15 justifications.
U.S. foreign policy does not fight wars on humanitarian grounds. The U.S. partners with brutal authoritarians and has funded Israel's destruction of Gaza for the last two and a half years.
Donald Trump said he'll partner with the new Ayatollah to run the Strait of Hormuz together and backed off regime change. Trump claimed negotiations are going great with "a person we believe to be in charge," not the supreme leader, possibly a hacker in Belarus. Iran publicly denies negotiations and demands: immediate stop to attacks, restitution for damage, and leaving the region. They also jokingly want a Terry Black's barbecue in Tehran.
"One million Bitcoin to this address."
Trump's statements may be a negotiation ploy. Iran consists of fanatical religious people who believe in martyrdom and holy war.
"Will Iran still be able to control the flow of oil? Be jointly controlled. By whom? Maybe me. Maybe me. Me and the Ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is... A very serious form of a regime change. Now, in all fairness, everybody's been killed from the regime. There's automatically a regime change. But we're dealing with some people that I find to be very reasonable, very solid."
Compares to Venezuela, which isn't working well.
Dave Smith has opposed war with Iran publicly for 15 years since the Bush administration. Iran differs from other global war on terrorism opponents. The Pentagon lacks escalation dominance with Iran, unlike previous wars.
"Escalation dominance is a lot like you're in jujitsu where high level guys put you in a position where either way, I'm going to get you."
Iran can target ships in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. assets, bases, embassies, and allies. Trump thought it would be quick like Venezuela but is now scrambling for an off ramp.
Trump is looking for an off ramp, as in the 12-day war. Post-9/11, Middle East leaders showed restraint: Saddam welcomed UN inspectors, Gaddafi denuclearized, Assad gave up chemical weapons, Iran entered JCPOA with inspections. During 12-day war, Iran called ahead to avoid U.S. troops and gave Trump an off ramp.
This time, Iran decided to inflict costs to deter future attacks. Already over a dozen Americans dead, couple hundred wounded, substantial Israeli damage and deaths, thousands of Iranians dead. Pete Higgs requested $200 billion; costs in tens of billions including munitions, movements, and damage.
Unlike Venezuela, Trump can't claim victory easily due to costs and lack of gains. Needs deal with new Iranian leadership for compensation. Other entities: Iran and Israel. Netanyahu demands regime change requiring ground forces, unclear who provides them.
During 12-day war, Trump criticized Israel and Iran for not knowing what they're doing, wanted ceasefire, but Israel bombed regime targets like government buildings and police departments to create chaos, preferring Libya/Syria model.
Israel targets Iran's support for Hezbollah, plans to occupy southern Lebanon. Netanyahu said greater Israel project is "very near and dear to my heart." Denying Palestinians a state enables this. U.S. ambassador to Israel stated God promised Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, West Bank, parts of Syria to Netanyahu as greater Israel.
"This would literally be on the level if I named my son Jesus Christ and then I told you you have to worship my son. Look, it's right there in your Bible."
References 1948 events, including horrific acts by soldiers laughing about them, recorded 20-30 years ago.
After 25 years of catastrophic wars of choice killing millions and bankrupting the U.S., jumping into war for Israel is insane, especially from administration promising no Middle East wars.
Trump's no wars promise appealed to independents. Smith endorsed Trump in 2024 despite disagreements. Praises Joe Rogan's role against progressive Democrats: woke indoctrination, open borders, COVID tyranny, reckless Ukraine proxy war, senile Biden, undemocratic Kamala Harris.
2024 dynamic: attempts to jail/murder Trump, alliances with RFK, Tulsi Gabbard, JD Vance raised non-intervention hopes. Trump won popular vote, all swing states, youth, culture.
This war destroys the coalition, handing country back to Democrats. 12-day war justification bullshit; Iran negotiating out of nuclear weapons.
Constantin Cassin supported 12-day war (no American deaths, low cost) but skeptical of current war. Initial reactions to 12-day war shifted from Israel acting alone to needing U.S. defensive help to bunker busters.
Praises Francis and Constantin of Trigonometry show for reasonable, non-ideological discussions.
Debated Alex Barron, called him a faggot after Holocaust denier accusations—not finest moment. Appreciates good faith talks like on Trigonometry.
Corporate media propaganda destroyed; internet, social media, podcasts dominant. Israel down 50 points in U.S. approval polls in two and a half years due to Gaza awareness. War with Iran clearly for Israel, Netanyahu's White House visits undeniable.
Coleman Hughes debated Glenn Greenwald on Israel's influence. Smith quitting social media for brain health.
Respects Coleman despite disagreements; Coleman focuses on issues, not character. On Piers Morgan post-Venezuela, Coleman compared to Latin America interventions, not Iraq/Libya/Syria.
Disagreed with the idea that no lessons from other wars apply to the current war in Iran. Suggested looking at interventions in Central and South America like Guatemala, Nicaragua, Cuba, Mexico, which were disastrous. Pointed out hypocrisy: critics avoid comparing Iran war to Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria.
Argued Israel lobby and Israeli government pushed for Iraq war. Hawks claim Ariel Sharon, sitting prime minister then, opposed it—not exactly true. Sharon wanted Iran invaded first, got assurances Iran next, then supported. Sharon's August 2002 Knesset speech called Iraq biggest threat with WMDs; Mossad produced false intelligence about nuclear weapons detonatable in 15 minutes. Current PM Netanyahu calls Iran war culmination of life's work, testified at UN with cartoon bomb showing uranium enrichment percentages (Daffy Duck-style). Netanyahu claimed in 1990s Iran 3-5 years from nuclear weapon—ongoing lies.
There's something really profoundly dishonorable about trying to lie another country into war.
Analogy: Friend since high school who drags you into fights every time. Used same analogy debating Josh Hammer at Princeton or with Charlie Kirk: Israel not ally, like friend getting you in bar fights—stop hanging out.
Tim Dillon's ad for Neuro gum/mints on podcast: Friend "Erica" (implied Ghislaine Maxwell reference?) with wild life—Romania orphanage, reality show, married famous guy, intelligence asset, husband/father/kids murdered, fundraisers, glitter pants. Attributes it to Neuro's energy/focus mints (natural green tea caffeine, L-theanine for calm focus, vitamin B12/B6). Hilarious rant style second to none, blends sarcasm and chaos celebration. Better than Nick Fuentes. Met in New York when green standup, predicted superstardom. Rants so captivating you forget you're on the show.
Tim Dillon's the best ranter that's ever walked the face of the planet.
Episode on Epstein files one of best podcasts ever. Take on Sam Harris: meditation app and supporting genocide.
Mainstream lost influence; people turn to podcasts for authenticity (Joe Rogan, Theo Von). Jake Tapper mimicking podcasters painful microcosm. Corporate media professional liars, read teleprompters knowing partial untruths, now pretend to be podcasters—proves inauthenticity. Had meetings on this.
You already know who he [Joe Rogan] is. He's that guy. Off stage, he's that guy.
Trump 2024 win forced media admission: podcasts mainstream, they fringe. Talking point: "Democrats need their own Joe Rogan"—but Joe independent, criticizes both sides (Christian nationalists wanting war for Jesus' return, open borders/woke chaos).
President Perplexity [AI] is going to run this country fairly and balanced.
Joe speaks for supermajority. Trump shattered coalition by lying into war for foreign country; ripe for others like Thomas Massie for president.
Big money bomb for Massie March 30th. Most important election: stands for America First, opposes Epstein coverup, stupid wars, fiscal sanity. Israel lobby/Adelsons pour millions to unseat him.
If not supporting Epstein coverup or stupid war of choice for Israel means not MAGA, then okay, I'm not MAGA.
America already great; MAGA attracts dorks, unintelligent cling-ons, bots from Indonesia/Russia. Groups corrupt: people great individually, worst in groups (George Carlin).
Critical of Gabbard lying into war she opposed (sold "No War With Iran" t-shirts). Last summer DNI threat assessment: Iran not attempting nuclear weapons, no political decision yet. Testified same to Congress. Later post: Iran weeks/months from nukes—bullshit. Enriching to 60% known via JCPOA inspections (Obama deal with US, Russia, France, England; limited to 3-5%, new inspections). Trump exited 2017/2018, Iran enriched higher after Israeli attacks. Experts say 60% to bomb/deliverable: couple years.
Gabbard tweet June 25th (edited): new intel confirms Iran's nuclear facilities destroyed (post-Fordo strike?). Testified it's president's job to determine imminent threat, not hers—misleading. Contradicted Trump on Iran not rebuilding post-2025 strikes (Time magazine). In position, treads tightrope, but should say if no imminent threat.
Tulsi Gabbard advocated against this specific war for the reasons unfolding now. It's a tough tightrope: resign like Joe Kent or stay and support it. There may be value in being one of the few reasonable voices with his ear. Ultimately, it's Trump's ability to determine imminent threats. As director of national intelligence, she likely gets access to the same classified information. What can she do but be a voice of reason if he does what he wants, including what Israel wants? He's talked about it.
In his first term, Trump told Steve Hilton—whom Joe Rogan has known for 12-13 years, met in Maui, vacationed with—about the military-industrial complex wanting war. Trump broke protocol: "There's a bunch of people that want to go to war, but they're pushing me all the time to go to war. That's what they want." Even Eisenhower coined the term in his farewell address. Trump said in the middle of his presidency: "All of them want war. They all want me to be in war all the time. If it was up to them, we'd always be at war."
Even crazier was Bill O'Reilly interviewing Trump on Vladimir Putin. Trump ran on detente with Russia. O'Reilly: "Putin's a killer. You want detente with a killer?" Trump: "We got a lot of killers, too." O'Reilly: "What do you mean?" Trump: "What was Iraq? What was that? We got a lot of killers on our side, too." O'Reilly admitted Iraq was a mistake.
This is why the establishment revolted: Trump can't help letting things slip. Never Trumpers like Ben Shapiro, Mark Levin, National Review, and neocons/Israel-first Republicans hated him in 2016 over deeply held principles. Now they're his biggest supporters, blowing up his original coalition.
Tell those guys to stay off Twitter—they make stupid statements, get refuted, and face thousands attacking with memes and videos. Rogan loves this dynamic: people get a voice they never had before, despite bots and state-sponsored actors. There was always manipulation in the old order.
YouTube bot farm busted: warehouse with rigged cell phones for views. Hire a company to boost views. Also fraud with advertisements. Twitter (X) pays based on engagement, so farming it out is fraud. Guy arrested for wire fraud after AI-generated song by fake band played billions of times, mimicking real streaming. Michael Smith pled guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud. Generated thousands of fake songs using AI.
Rogan defends AI music: real songs, some bangers. In Japan, AI song went viral, guy hired real band members, now popular—AI creating jobs. Shifty Brent AI rapper discussed: 50 Cent-style, fast flow like Eminem in prime. Eminem proved it live. 50 Cent more casual/slower.
Fox News contributor claimed Dave Smith's account botted by foreign influence: 900k followers but playing Laugh Boston (300-seat venue, 5 shows). Smith sold out last year, hopes to again. Comedy clubs work that way—not selling stadiums. Grilled him, tagged Fox News for evidence. Not suing, but wants retraction. Everyone's botted: controversial figures, Rogan's, Jamie's. Former FBI analyst: up to 80% artificial pre-Elon. Now see posting country (e.g., pro-America from Pakistan/Israel). Elon Musk's Twitter purchase changed communication for the better—accurate representation of people, racism up but real. Other voices can compete.
Wish to move past bigotry against any group. Wish Mark Levin and Tucker Carlson could converse. Ben Shapiro video attacked Piers Morgan for having Smith on, preempted Smith's response as "debate me, bro." Shapiro refuses: Smith's "intellectually dishonest." Smith: believes what he says. Rogan agrees—Smith honest about fuck-ups, corrections.
Shapiro debated everyone pre-Oct 7, including 19-year-olds confused on gender, but not Israel critics despite it being #1 issue for 2.5 years as support bled (now pro-Palestinian country, unthinkable before). Smith wishes good-faith convo. Suggests Scott Horton, smarter/expert. If dishonest, easy win for Shapiro.
Douglas Murray similar: appeal to authority (not expert/professor/been there), but got history wrong. Hack moves.
Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins (ex-UFC light heavyweight, cut). Ngannou natural, scariest heavyweight—perfect fight needed against him (Stipe Miocic did it first fight via skill/strategy/exhaustion; patient Ngannou terrifying). DC commentary on Ngannou vs. Gane: "Oh my God, he's doing jujitsu now... it's learning." Ngannou took back, blasted PFL opponent unconscious.
Alistair Overeem primetime scarier (skillful on sauce, e.g., Brock Lesnar). Ronda Rousey card also has Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry (great fight), Robeilis (6'7" Cuban taekwondo heavyweight knockout artist, natural) vs. Junior Dos Santos (all-time great, long career, bad knockouts/wars with Cain Velasquez, Stipe—fights should've stopped). Robeilis exposed on ground last UFC fight; striking interesting vs. Ngannou. Shallow heavyweight outside UFC; Russia has many good ones.
Josh Hokit is a wrestler known for crazy post-fight speeches, wearing an American flag bandana, and saying Brittany Griner has a dick. He's nuts but smart at marketing. Gabe Stevenson is an Olympic gold medalist wrestler, 250 pounds, young, super dedicated, recently learning striking quickly, and a Jon Jones protege absorbing his mindset. Jon Jones is investing time in him, boosting his confidence. They're bringing him up right: fought in dirty boxing and small MMA organizations to build experience. When in UFC, he'll be a problem.
Heavyweight Landscape and Wrestling Advantage
No current heavyweights like Frank Mir or Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira known for fighting off their back. Most heavyweights don't like fighting off their back, even good jiu-jitsu guys. Fighting off back is harder now than before. Fabricio Werdum was the greatest at it. Take down modern heavyweights, they're in trouble. Gabe Stevenson is next-level wrestler: in one fight, KO'd with left hook, shot double leg as opponent collapsed, took him down unconscious, pounded out.
Need American heavyweight champions. Current American champions: Mackenzie Dern (strawweight, American though dad is Brazilian legend Megaton Diaz, she was Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion). Sean Strickland fighting for title. Kayla Harrison. Mostly women.
Joshua won on injury, needs rematch. Freak injury: fell, dislocated arm (shoulder and elbow). Pantoja hasn't fully recovered, needs physiotherapy. Elbow less complicated, can pop back if handled right (unlike Yuri Prochazka's team ripping shoulder needing surgery). Shoulder dislocates a lot, sometimes unnoticed. Joe Rogan anecdote: orthopedic surgeon said his shoulder had been dislocated multiple times without him knowing from armbars, triangles, posting.
Hardcore fan buys every PPV. Switching from ESPN to Paramount (already has for kids' shows like Landman). Now PPVs free with Paramount Plus, but loyal customer no longer paying. Understands Paramount invested $7 billion, but questions business sense. Response: massive for new customers. Loyal PPV buyer ($70 per big card) saves money paying Paramount Plus monthly ($13.99/month or $139/year ad-free with Showtime; new subs $2.99/month first two months). Introduces UFC to new audience, ropes in via UFC then explore Paramount shows, builds library. Many skipped PPVs if not worth $70 or waited weeks on ESPN Plus. Now instant access, great deal. ESPN had fee plus PPVs. Makes wives of fans happy, no more PPV buys. Some cards lackluster always (e.g., Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza). MMA most exciting sport even on worst day: Frank Mir vs Cro Cop boring then spectacular KO. No standups or separations; figure out how to escape.
Piracy and Business Move
Sean O'Malley: piracy led to Paramount deal. Many stream illegally but now subscribe. Smart for Paramount with built-in UFC fanbase. Need banger cards to forget stale ones.
Outside in June Washington D.C.: 100 degrees June 14th 2024, 67% humidity, 80% chance thunderstorms, mid-80s highs, at noon. Radically affects performance. Joe Rogan's bald head will burn, needs zinc sunscreen. No AC visible in renderings. Affects commentary: sweat-soaked shirts (Anik's pits). Changes fights: fighters dehydrated 24 hours prior, now in sauna. Justin Gaethje (37, long career) vs Ilia Topuria (most lethal he's faced; last three fights craziest resume: Holloway, Oliveira handled on ground passing guard despite body lock attempt, ate clean elbow unfazed). Special talent. Wants perfect conditions in 72-degree AC arena (T-Mobile, MSG, TD Garden), not tents with sweaty mats or slipping in situation room. Historic at White House, Gaethje must take as red-blooded American.
Travis Lutter vs Anderson Silva: missed weight, couldn't walk, shuffling, cracked lips, dry face, looked shipwrecked. 24 hours later fought prime Silva, did well despite elbows in triangle. Compromised weight cut hurt him; stylistically best shot, got positions. Advocates more weight classes every 10 pounds (85-205 too wide). Unhealthy, dangerous; adds dehydration skill to best fighter. GSP: some naturally better at weight fluctuation. Weight classes use outdated boxing names: UFC welterweight 170 (boxing 147), featherweight 145 (boxing 126), lightweight 155 (boxing 135, Julio Cesar Chavez champ). Come up with own names.
Why am I not getting the leg reach? They do that sometimes on the regular tale of the tape, it'll still just be reach. In MMA, leg reach is such a huge deal. If you're in kicking range of me but can't touch me, your jab doesn't matter as much as in boxing. Some guys have really long legs for their torso. Joe Rogan's friend Larry Jones from taekwondo days had a short torso, making his leg reach longer than Steve Bates, who had a longer torso. Aldo was such a good kicker, probably part of the reason.
Larry was 6'3", all legs, insane kicker, like made in a lab. In tournaments, opponents would react with 'what the fuck am I gonna do with this?' His reach was nuts, fast kicks, couldn't get close if normally built in his weight class. His torso was shorter than Joe's, but crazy long legs and arms. Some people are built certain ways, giant problem for striking.
Ilya Topuria is unbelievably impressive because he's not tall at all and flatlines people. Charles Oliveira looked much bigger than Ilia and Max.
Oliveira is big. The sport's fine, not in trouble—heavyweight division is fucked, in a weird situation. Alex Pereira vs. Cyril Gane is very interesting. Cyril Gane is a problem: super athletic, fast, skillful striking, elite Muay Thai, does things differently.
Even Francis grappled with him a lot. Jon Jones took him down and choked him, but has anyone stood toe-to-toe and beat him up? No. Tai Tuivasa tried but got lit up. In the bit with Tom Aspinall, Aspinall looked like he was winning early, but Gane is tough. He was getting off on Aspinall, didn't look good for him. Unfortunate eye pokes robbed us of seeing Tom drag Cyril into deep water, how Tom would adjust in later rounds—which we've never seen from Tom either.
Poor Tom had two eye surgeries, felt disrespected by UFC and fans. Fans disrespecting him is crazy.
Should be one point if you poke someone in the eyes, especially fingers going in. Glancing thing maybe warning, up to judge's discretion on replay. Nut shot straight on, one point; glancing maybe warning.
If you land a nut shot accidentally (trying inside leg kick), first one is accident, guy needs minutes, doesn't take full five, then back to it. Gives huge advantage to the kicker who hurt him with no accounting.
MMA is still young sport, too much referee discretion. Need official rule for these fouls. Doesn't exist in basketball—if foul, it's a foul, crowd goes nuts. But wild things don't get called.
Referees get paid off to influence gambling lines—100% proven. Sacramento Kings vs. Lakers series, notoriously crazy, no fouls called on Lakers, all on Kings. Ref confirmed it. Shaq and Kobe Lakers, big money to get to finals.
Ref said: no one told us what to do, but you kind of know what they want, so you do it, get put on good games.
Public hanging.
Fuck you, but we can deal with Congress's insider trading but basketball must be... Hang them all in front of the kingdom.
Anything else before we wrap? No, thank you for letting a non-expert talk MMA. Love talking to non-experts. Thank you so much, love you, you're the fucking man. We'll have fun tonight. Last night was fun.
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