High win rate of bets on military operations a likely sign of insider trading
In a Nutshell
US military personnel and others with classified access are using insider information to place high-stakes bets on prediction markets like Polymarket, achieving win rates far exceeding normal probability—such as 52% on long-shot military outcomes versus 7% for sports bets. One Army Master Sergeant allegedly made over $400,000 from a Venezuelan raid, while a cluster of nine linked accounts profited $2.4 million with a 98% success rate on Iran-related events. This pattern of suspiciously timed trades on oil futures and war outcomes signals systemic insider trading that poses national security risks, as adversaries could exploit the same data to anticipate US operations.
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The war with Iran and the US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro featured soldiers, strategy, casualties, and costs, but also included a new element of betting on war outcomes. This year alone, more than a billion dollars has been staked online on military decisions and outcomes. Bettors worldwide have taken positions on when and how attacks might happen and even the fate of world leaders, with some bets appearing suspiciously timed and based on information too specific for civilian outsiders. This has created a new category of insider trading. As long as there have been wars, there have been war profiteers, but never quite like this.
Cloaked in night and shrouded in secrecy, US special operations forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on January 3rd. He was taken to the US to face drug trafficking and narco-terrorism charges. The President of Venezuela was not the only figure in the operation who faced federal charges. US Army soldier Gannon Kem Van Dyke, who was involved in the planning and execution of the Venezuela mission, was charged last month with using classified intelligence to place bets based on when the surprise raid would unfold.
If the allegations are true, this represents one of the worst betrayals of trust in this area. Americans should feel confident the most important little agency they've probably never heard of is on the job. Rob Schwartz, now a private lawyer in Washington, previously worked for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission until last year, where he helped police fraud and insider trading. A soldier using classified intelligence to trade is unprecedented. The classified intelligence Van Dyke knew about came from his role in planning and executing the mission, with nothing comparable to compare it to.
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