Iran New Threat " Continuous Strikes" Coming Soon...
In a Nutshell
Markets pumped on flat CPI data (core 2.5%, overall 2.4%), but Trump claims Iran war is nearly over, countered by Iran's shift to continuous strikes blocking oil via Strait of Hormuz, threatening $200/barrel prices and targeting US/Israel-bound tankers. Oil faces upside risk from uncertainty despite 400M barrel reserve release, with fuel oil CPI up 11.1%; trade long markets if war ends (short oil), or short overbought indices if escalation spikes prices (SPX support 590-585). Stock movers: Oracle +12%, NBIS +15%, HIMS +15%; join live trading for updates.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Markets are pumping today. CPI data report released this morning: overall core CPI at 2.5% versus previous 2.5%, no change. Overall CPI at 2.4% versus expectation of 2.4% and previous 2.4%. Upcoming reports: tomorrow initial claims and continuing claims; Friday GDP, PCE, and JOLTS (job openings).
Markets took off at open due to news from Trump: Trump stated war with Iran will end soon because there is practically nothing left to target. Iran stated they are switching from reciprocal hits to continuous strikes and warn they will drive oil prices to $200 a barrel. Iran says US will not control their oil prices; won't allow one liter of oil to reach US, Israel, or partners. Any vessels or tankers bound for them will be legitimate targets.
Iran shifting military strategy as oil prices have declined. Video of Iranian military sergeant stating Iran won't allow a single liter of hostile oil to pass the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says strikes will be continuous from now.
Trump stated two days ago that Iran war is pretty much over when markets sold off aggressively; tested the idea and saw positive market reaction, now using it again. Is the Iran war actually over? If over, short oil since prices still elevated and would drop. However, oil prices likely to rise with more uncertainty. Be aware of not just Trump's statements but implications on the market.
Good news: approved releasing 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves to lower prices, largest emergency release in history. In February CPI data (just released), biggest increase was fuel oil at 11.1%. Paying more at the pump due to Middle East situation. If fuel oil prices continue up, negative implications for pocketbook and inflation rate, broader market.
If bullish (Iran war over, oil prices drop), go long markets. If oil prices will rise with Middle East uncertainty, short oil or buy the dip; short markets or stay cash if overbought. On 30-minute timeframe, testing resistance; support at 590-585. Larger timeframes show approaching previous resistance; patterns tend to repeat.
Oracle up 12.11%. NBIS up 15% (possible overbought reversal). HIMS up 15%. Check different timeframes for perspectives; some running on news, some continuous.
Will keep updated on Middle East and market opportunities. Trade live every morning at market open; second link in description for LPP team, daily live trading sessions. Sign up to watch live tomorrow. End the year on a green note.
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