It Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better
In a Nutshell
AI adoption is accelerating faster than any prior technology, creating a compressed 10-15 year transition to a post-work economy that will feel worse before it improves. The shift is already hitting entry-level roles in writing, marketing, and software while established professionals remain insulated, and the risk is power concentrating among elites who historically resist changes that threaten their position. The timeline hinges on whether this revolution follows historical patterns of doubling in speed with each iteration, potentially finishing in 15-20 years once the inflection point hits around 2030.
These notes were generated by AI and may contain inaccuracies.
Many viewers have asked about the transition phase after work rather than philosophical questions. The most frequently asked question concerns how quickly and smoothly the transition will occur. The speaker received this feedback through a YouTube Community tab note asking about life after work.
The speaker plans to launch training courses on the Kagaby platform, an online learning platform subscribed to earlier in the year. Two courses were partially built before running out of energy. Viewers are asked to comment on what they would like to learn.
The transition speed depends on individual assumptions and identity. Some predict the transition will take 40 years or may not happen at all, while others predict it will occur within two years. The speaker tends to think the transition will be faster due to AI's unprecedented acceleration rate.
AI has achieved the fastest rate of adoption of any technology ever, nearly twice as fast as smartphones, the previous technology with rapid spread. This represents an objective trend that has been observed and measured across major new technologies introduced over the past century and a half, starting with the steam engine.
Basic technology does not necessarily mean widespread adoption. The question of how quickly disruptive adoption will occur is more difficult to answer. The current year shows various angles of this process.
Most companies are not laying off employees directly due to AI, though this does not mean employment is growing. Companies like IBM, Oracle, and Cisco with hundreds of thousands of employees are laying off significant numbers, such as 7,000 people. Small neighborhood shops with 12 employees do not fire anyone, making large corporate actions the significant factor.
For software developers who cannot find jobs, writers, copywriters, marketers, and new graduates, the shift is already happening. Some must change course or be exceptional to find good jobs. At the other end of the spectrum, experienced professionals in management, some developers, influencers, and content creators may not notice the transformation.
The YouTube channel "Strictly Fran" running "Back to Basics" and "Castaways" channels is not interested in AI. Their focus remains on tropical paradises and sailing. The speaker was a fan but notes these creators occupy a limited space with only about 400,000 YouTube accounts having 100,000 subscribers globally.
The "Engels Gap" during industrial revolutions featured horrific factory conditions lasting for decades, with children working in mines. The question becomes whether to endure 40-70 years of confusion or accelerate the transition to complete it in five years.
Some believe in the "Fourth Turn" and Ray Dalio's theory of world-order change, suggesting everything will fall apart and be rebuilt through "positive disintegration." This represents an opportunity to reimagine civilization. Concerns about power, violence, and unrest exist if the transition is too rapid.
Civil war is not completely out of the question but not considered likely due to the lack of a huge political divide. However, severe unrest, rioting, protests, and looting could occur. The concept of being "nine meals away from a riot" was mentioned, though Americans generally have good ability to feed themselves.
The transition could occur as early as three years, with things potentially finished and settled within 15-20 years. This timeline refers to when the new world order will have taken shape, not a single world government, but the prevailing model similar to pre- and post-World War II divisions.
AI, robot revolution, and quantum revolution technologies will reach a turning point or inflection point by around 2030. Exponential sequences cause things to happen quickly once they begin. The world has already begun responding to these changes.
None of the three previous industrial revolutions caused war or collapse. The first industrial revolution took about a century and a half, the second took 50-70 years, and the third took 30-40 years. Each subsequent revolution has roughly doubled its speed.
This revolution promises to be twice as fast as previous ones, potentially taking 10-15 years or 20 years at most. This represents significant urban restructuring in a relatively short period.
Power tends to concentrate, giving those with more capital or political influence the ability to establish presence, consolidate interests, and change rules in their favor. Elites have a "sphere of distortion of reality" allowing them to tilt the playing field.
History shows elites resist change even when it conflicts with their own interests. The Russian aristocracy exemplifies this pattern, consistently saying "no" to modernization despite repeated defeats, due to incentive structures that favored maintaining the status quo.
The core idea of post-work economics involves aligning elite incentives with broader interests. "Credible threats" represents another approach involving extracting concessions by force, though this remains a separate topic.
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